US- Ticket forecasts go into hyperdrive

(MENAFN- Gulf Times) The wait is over. Star Wars: The Force Awakens debuted in US theatres yesterday night, finally answering whether Walt Disney Co can deliver the box-office punch that matches months of pre-opening hype.
If expectations weren't already high, they've only risen this week after the biggest star-studded premiere in Hollywood in years, near-unanimous critical acclaim and ticket forecasts that rise by the day.
Disney shares have climbed all week, amid glowing commentary from Wall Street analysts touting the film's prospects, and are up 21% this year in a tough climate for media stocks. With five more pictures in the works, Star Wars will set the pace for the company's moviemaking, theme- park and consumer-products businesses for years.
"It's huge, there's no question," said Amber Stepper, vice president of marketing at National Amusements Inc, a Norwood, Massachusetts-based chain with about 950 screens around the world. "As shows sell out, we are continuing to add more."
Just how huge will depend on whether the picture can live up to the anticipation created by the world's largest entertainment company.
Bob Iger, Disney's chairman and chief executive officer, isn't making predictions. The company itself is trying to tamp down expectations, citing estimates of $175mn to $201mn from forecasting services that are well below independent projections. Winter releases typically lack the box-office punch of summer blockbusters.
"All I can say is we're very excited about the film and we can't wait to share it with the world," Iger said in an interview at a Disney event last week.
Record advance ticket sales of more than $100mn, film trailers with hundreds of millions of online views, and now talk of Oscar nominations all point to a hit that will challenge industry benchmarks.
The Force Awakens could take in $229mn in US and Canadian theatres in its opening weekend and as much as $900mn in its full North American run, according to researcher BoxOffice.com, which raised its estimates Wednesday.
That would top the $208.8mn record debut set by Jurassic World this year and the overall $760.5mn domestic mark held by the 2009 release Avatar. The Force Awakens could also challenge the global $2.79bn ticket record set by Avatar.
Surveys of moviegoers indicate Force Awakens is scoring highly across the gender and age categories followed by market research firms, according to Vincent Bruzzese, chief executive officer of C4 R&D, which consults with studios on film projects.
"It's the strongest movie I've ever seen tracked," Bruzzese said. "You have older, you have younger. This is the movie that Star Wars fans have been waiting for."