Gaze not into the abyss lest the abyss gaze back" Nietzsche warned us. The abyss in global finance is gazing back in 2016. Petro-sovereign wealth funds from the Arabian Gulf to Angola/Nigeria Norway to Malaysia will sell at least $2 trillion in assets in 2016-18 if oil prices stay weak as they surely will. Nigeria has devalued its naira by 25 per cent. Russian capital flight is the highest since the fall of the USSR as the rouble has collapsed 50 per cent to 70 against the US dollar.

The shockwaves from forced sovereign wealth selling will gut the world's commercial property markets infrastructure and private equity funds. Tight money from the Fed will de facto shut down the IPO market for borrowers from oil exporting countries including the GCC. All GCC investment banks contractors and private equity healthcare platforms who hope to go public have zero chance of selling shares in an IPO in London New York or any real regulated non-rigged non-casino Third World stock exchange.

Index funds and leveraged funds have become forced sellers in high yield corporate debt just as liquidity vanishes from Wall Street thanks to the financial genius Barney Frank once congressman of the People's Republic of Massachusetts.

A tsunami of index/sellers in an illiquid dealer market with no real buying interest. Smart money is also fast money that moves at the speed of light and spreads contagion across the hyper-kinetic ultra-volatile netherworld of the global capital markets.

The third avenue fund freeze has magnified the bloodbath in the world's illiquid speculative and high yield bond markets. This financial Frankenstein has begun to run amok (Malay word la as is ringgit!) in world finance. My friends who are junk bond specialists in New York/London expect $100 billion in energy defaults as Brent falls below $30. This is the reason trading volumes in Wall Street's high yield bond index funds have tripled as the smart money flees in panic. High-yield spreads have now spiked to 2009 levels. There is $10 trillion in unhedged debt from emerging market banks governments and corporates that will lead to a global credit crunch and evoke the malign ghosts of 1991 2001 and 2008-09.

It is not the risk you know that kills you but the risk you never dreamt existed Donald Rumsfeld's unknown unknowns. I was once obsessive about my kids wearing arm floaters when swimming in Asian resort paddle pools on our Christmas week holidays. We were in Sri Lanka's Tea Factory but I had originally planned to go to Phuket with my wife and (then) eight-year old twins. But for the grace of God I would have been in Phuket on December 24 2004 the day the Asian tsunami claimed the lives 250000 souls.

Several top banks in Dubai who once invited me to address their elite clients now ignore me because they do not like my bearish message on asset markets. Sad but true. Yet ostriches rarely out run predatory a panther in the African savannah or in financial markets. There are multi-billion dollar vested interests all over the world in finance politics and media that cannot bear to have someone independent tell the truth to the world. Who would ever buy a joke hedge fund if they knew the entire game is rigged against them by the fund sponsor? Why bother robbing a bank when you can simply found and operate one? Information is a classic currency of power and billions of dollars are spent in communicating financial misinformation to dupe Joe Public as the leveraged lambs are fleeced and then led to the slaughter.

The public learns the hard way that banditry and wealth management are not mutually exclusive professions. In a world of institutional lies in finance/media the act of telling the truth is subversive. So people ignored me when I said crude oil would fall from $100 to $35. I was called a perma-bear when I said Russian Brazil and Chinese equities could fall by 50 per cent in 2013 while in exile on Magic Planet. My NRI friends in Dubai still remain India bulls.

Belief in Latin is credere the root of the English word credit - and credibility. Without credibility there is no credit. Risk is a four-letter word. So is ruin.