The terrorist atrocities in Paris were a sickening reminder that evil exists and stalks the innocent even in one of the most beautiful and civilised cities in the world. The 10th arrondissement on the Right Bank of the Seine is not a tourist hangout but it is an area I once knew well and it broke my heart to see so many dozens of young people so callously slaughtered by monster psychopaths. As after 9/11 London Bali Madrid Peshawar Mumbai Beirut Ankara and many others the human race has been disgraced by mass murder committed by a handful of criminals. France is now at war with Daesh as the aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle sails from Toulon to the Syrian coast. So it is no surprise that defence shares led by Raytheon Lockheed General Dynamics and Northrop continue to soar in the stock market. After all if Elysee Palace invokes Article 5 the Nato could declare war on Daesh; the Nato is 70 per cent of global defence spending or almost $1 trillion. The global arms bazaar tragically just became more profitable on Wall Street after the horror in Paris.

The King Dollar trade is both crowded and consensus as its fall after the FOMC minutes confirmed a December rate hike. The Paris atrocities do nothing to inhibit the smart money's disillusionment with the euro as a growth scare in France increases the odds and scale of a Draghi ECB rate cut. Any softness in the US dollar is only related to profit taking in the global currency market and the primary trend of 2016 will remain King Dollar. The mild winter record Russian output a fall in Chinese demand and a global wet barrel glut means it is only a matter of time before West Texas crude decisively breaks below $40 a barrel. This means the uptick in petro/commodities currencies is not the beginning of any sustainable uptrend. This means the Canadian dollar's epic downtrend is not over and the loonie could well trade below 1.36 though an ideal entry point is the 50 day moving average at 1.3180.

I was surprised by the Bank of Japan's decision not to raise its asset purchase programme above 80 trillion a month despite the awful growth and inflation data. This means the Japanese yen can well rise to 121-122 and trigger a 1000-2000 point fall in the Nikkei Dow which is now overbought.

2016 will be the year when US economic growth accelerates due to a vibrant consumer/credit/housing demand cycle while the China hard landing and another energy bust leads to recession deflation currency debt and banking crises in emerging markets. It does not surprise me that the scale of emerging market underperformance relative to Wall Street has actually increased in November. The chronic overcapacity in global commodities will mean the bear markets of 2015 will continue even worsen. While oil exporting economies are hit by deflation shock the new US-Russian rapprochement (and French Kremlin warmth) could be a tactical signal to buy Russian equities up 10 per cent in 2015. There is no investment case in Brazil as I have argued since 2012.

While it is unrealistic to expect the S&P 500's valuation multiple not to compress as US dollar rates rise US money centre banks should continue their outperformance in 2016. Valuations are still modest at just above book value though Dodd Frank Volcker Rule capital surcharges and Basel Three have reduced returns on tangible book value. While I am reluctant to chase Citi JPMorgan or Bank of America while the index trades above 2095 I see significant money-making potential in the next inevitable Wall Street correction.

It is tough to be bullish on Asia on the eve of US rate hikes and a Chinese growth decline. Strangely enough the only Asian markets that beat Wall Street equity returns (in US dollars) since 2008 were Pakistan and the Philippines hardly Asian tigers.

I am alarmed by the scale in Asia's export decline. This is not just the Great China Bust of 2015 but only "reshoring" to Mexico and Central Europe. The Chinese credit bubble will be an unmitigated disaster for Asian banks. After all Beijing has amassed the biggest debt in history 250 per cent of GDP. The logic of a $10 trillion economy run by a Communist Party Politburo means a Japan style "lost decade" in the Middle Kingdom. Is this scenario remotely reflected in Asian equities crude iron ore or the ringgit/rand/Aussie. Absolutely not. Value traps like beauty lie in the eyes of the beholder.