(MENAFN- Arab Times) India's economy expanded by seven percent in the last quarter, making it one of the world's fastest-growing, but experts say violent protests over jobs in the prime minister's own state last week are a sign many are still not feeling the benefits. They say that could spell trouble for Narendra Modi, who swept to power last year promising jobs, investment and a revival of India's flagging economy after 13 years in charge of the prosperous western state of Gujarat.
Many hoped the prime minister could replicate his success in Gujarat across India, where nearly one in four people lives on less than $1.25 a day. But the huge turnout last week for a mass rally in the state to demand better access to government jobs and university places for the Patidar caste has raised questions over the success of the socalled Gujarat model on which Modi built his reputation.
With the Patidar movement threatening to spread to other caste groups in India, economist Sunil Kumar Sinha said a lack of employment prospects for young people appeared to be driving social unrest. "There has been a lot of trumpeting of the Gujarat growth model. But if this model was as successful as people thought, then agitation like we have seen by the Patels (Patidars) shouldn't have happened," said Sinha, a senior economist at India Ratings and Research. "The government might rightly say that it's boosted the GDP number, or built roads, or provided power 24/7, but the bottom line is, can your model produce enough jobs? If not, protests will happen."
Last week's protests centred on the demands of the Patidars, a relatively well-off caste of farmers and traders, for caste-based reservations - long a sensitive issue in India. The country sets aside a proportion of jobs and university places for Dalits, known as "untouchables", and for other so-called "backward castes", under measures intended to remedy centuries of discrimination. "Either everyone should get reservation or no one should," said Hardik Patel, the movement's young firebrand leader, who has vowed to hold similar protests in other major Indian cities. Some observers say Patel's own motives are more political than economic, and accuse him of manipulating local grievances over caste reservations to win popular support.
But there is no doubting the authenticity of those grievances, which analysts say stem from a failure to translate economic growth into job creation. Meanwhile, the man Prime Minister Narendra Modi has tasked with launching a China-style infrastructure boom calls himself a "bulldozer" and promises to add two percentage points to India's economic growth in two years. "I am a man of my word," Nitin Gadkari told Reuters on a trip to his home district in Maharashtra, the state where he made a reputation for getting the job done.
"If I fail, fall short on any of the promises, you can change my name. It was Gadkari's first interview to foreign media since taking office. Modi chose the 58-year-old former president of his Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party as transport and shipping minister after winning last year's general election on a promise of growth and jobs for aspiring Indians. Fifteen months after taking power, Modi's credibility as an economic manager is on the line, with economic growth faltering and social tensions erupting in his home state of Gujarat over a lack of job opportunities.
That is increasing pressure on Gadkari to deliver results to back up Modi's promises to build 100 'smart' cities in India connected by a network of highways and high-speed rail links. He has money to play with: Spending on roads and bridges has been doubled this fiscal year. Policies "The intent has been there and the right kind of policies are being pursued," said Sandeep Upadhyay, managing director at the Centrum Infra Advisory Ltd. consultancy. "Still, you may never be able to see again the euphoria that we witnessed in 2008-09," he added, referring to a creditfuelled infrastructure boom under the last government.
Modi and Gadkari are a study in contrasts - the premier an ascetic loner with a neatly trimmed beard; his minister a garrulous, paunchy figure with a pencil moustache and a penchant for offbeat comments, including saying he waters the plants in his garden with urine to make them grow faster. In a cabinet crowded with first-time ministers who can barely stand up to the Indian leader, perhaps only Gadkari and Finance Minister Arun Jaitley are recognised in their own right. As construction minister of Maharashtra state between 1995 and 1999, Gadkari built India's first highspeed concrete highway, from Mumbai to Pune, earning another nickname: 'flyover minister'.
In his current job, Gadkari inherited $57 billion in projects stalled by land and environmental disputes. The logjam has plunged developers into debt - 30 percent of India's $100 billion in stressed bank loans are to the infrastructure sector. The government has sought to unblock those projects and bridge the funding gap by hiking its own spending on infrastructure by nearly $11 billion this year. It has also put $3 billion of seed capital into a new infrastructure fund, and hopes to attract 10 times that in private backing. Even after speedier clearances and a decision to bail out stressed schemes, road projects worth over $9 billion are mired in land shortages and red tape. "There are banks, there are court cases," Gadkari said on board a six-seater charter plane.
"That's why it is very difficult and very complicated." Adding to the challenge is the government's retreat on plans to make it easier for businesses to buy land. After failing to win support in parliament, Modi has given up on legislation that would cover the whole country. Putting a brave face on the setback, Gadkari said that individual Indian states would take the lead in easing the law on land purchases. "There will be no difficulty in acquiring land for infrastructure projects," he said. Gadkari wants to speed up the pace of road-building to over 30 km (18.6 miles) a day by next March from 14 km a day at present, and complete $75 billion worth of infrastructure projects over the next three years.
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