(MENAFN- Gulf Times) It is obvious that Prime Minister Narendra Modi views the upcoming elections to the Bihar assembly as very crucial to his overall plans for India.
Even before the Election Commission had declared the poll schedule, which is likely to last as long as one full month, Modi has stormed into Bihar not once but twice within a span of a few weeks and has, for all practical purposes, declared that victory would give him-emphasis on 'him'- the chance to set things right in the state.
If Chief Minister Nitish Kumar is leading the fight for the opposing camp, then its seems Modi is happy to make it a Prime Minister versus Chief Minister contest as the Bharatiya Janata Party does not want to project anyone as its chief ministerial candidate, at least for the time being.
Contrast this with the BJP's alacrity in declaring Kiran Bedi as the party's chosen candidate for the top post in Delhi, an attempt that failed miserably before Arvind Kejriwal's smart, door-to-door and down-to-earth campaigning.
Horses for courses could be a valid argument, but Modi may be in for a shock if Biharis feel they are going to be ruled from Delhi via the remote control.
Be that as it may, Modi has gone ahead and showered the state with largesse to the tune of Rs20bn by way of direct and indirect aid and developmental and infrastructural projects that, if and when fully and properly implemented, could catapult Bihar on to the ranks of prosperous states.
BJP president Amit Shah had set up his camp in state capital Patna over a month ago and almost all of Modi's senior cabinet colleagues have been drafted for campaigning.
The Prime Minister himself is due to address at least four more rallies. The party has recruited a phalanx of IT professionals headed by former London banker and Patna native Rituraj Sinha to coordinate the logistical and promotional aspects which involve the use of 243 specially fitted 'parivartan raths' or 'chariots of developmental change'.
There are 62,779 polling booths in the state and the BJP has asked its local leaders to address not just one but three meetings in each of these booths. That's 188,337 meetings in the next two months or so.
Apparently, the Delhi debacle has sent the message home and Modi and Shah are doing everything they can to make sure that that history does not get repeated in Bihar.
It is a mark of the importance that Modi attaches to Bihar that last week, after addressing the Indian diaspora in Dubai late at night, he flew straight to Patna to attend an election rally as also to announce the federal economic package for the state.
But should Modi get so deeply and directly involved in the electoral battle of a single state however important it may be in terms of parliamentary calculations?
Yes, Bihar and Uttar Pradesh have traditionally been the two crucial states that had to be won for a Prime Minister to feel safe in his chair in Delhi. But those were the days of coalition governments at the centre when whimsical regional parties could switch allegiance depending on which way the wind was blowing.
With his party enjoying a handsome majority on its own in the Lok Sabha, Modi should have no fear whatsoever of allies leaving the boat midstream. In fact, Modi's stature is so formidable at the moment-and most probably for the next 45 months or so-that he is more than likely to attract more parties to his side in due course.
So why should Modi devote so much of his effort and energy to Bihar? Is the BJP's Rajya Sabha status such a major handicap for the Prime Minister? Is it Modi's attempt to show that Delhi and Kejriwal were only minor aberrations and that people of India in general are with him? Does Modi believe that if the BJP wins Bihar he could blunt the opposition in parliament, thereby making his job that much easier in implementing his pet projects?
Or is it a burning desire to snub Nitish Kumar electorally after he walked out of the BJP-led coalition before last year's parliamentary elections calling Modi communal?
For all one can predict, it could be victory or defeat of convincing proportions for either formation or it could well turn out to be a neck-and-neck race with a hung assembly as the end result. (After last year's Lok Sabha and Delhi assembly polls, even the most daring psephologist would be loathe to venturing the Bihar outcome.)
But for the sake of argument, let's imagine for a moment that come mid-November, when the polls results are announced, the BJP loses Bihar. Where will that leave the Prime Minister?
Of course he would continue to be the Prime Minister of India but the loss of face, so to say, would most certainly stifle his energies to no extent.
The Congress Party, which punched well above its weight by disrupting parliament for the entire monsoon session, would be emboldened to take on Modi with renewed vigour.
Nitish Kumar would turn the screw further into Modi's so-called communal politics.
And lastly but most importantly, Modi would find himself pushed to a corner in Uttar Pradesh where assembly elections are due next year.
As for Amit Shah's brilliant man-management and organisational skills, knives will be out from several quarters within the party. Quite a few skeletons will tumble down the BJP cupboard consequences of which are hard to predict at the moment.
Defeat in Delhi in February 2015 was glossed over somewhat nonchalantly because the BJP was still in the 'honeymoon' period after the heady win of May 2014.
But Bihar 2015 is an altogether different kettle of fish. Modi seems to have taken Bihar as a personal challenge.
The fall, if it happens, would be disastrous. That's the problem with an all-or-nothing approach.
If, on the other hand, had Modi chosen to have a chief ministerial candidate-say, former long-time deputy chief minister Sushil Modi of the BJP or either of the alliance partners Ram Vilas Paswan or Jitan Ram Manjhi, although unlikely-right from the beginning, the impact of the blow could largely be brushed off.
Modi could still campaign vigorously but the focus could shift to any of these three worthies. A few days of 'mourning' and blame game would naturally ensue but Modi could try to convince himself and the rest of India that the development agenda that he had set forth would remain intact.
Modi, one must remember, is not very used to defeat. His three consecutive stints as Chief Minister of Gujarat saw him in near-invincible avatars.
And then came the 2014 parliamentary elections which, for the first time in three decades, brought a single party majority government at the centre.
How Modi will reconcile to a defeat in Bihar will be quite an interesting aside for political observers although the same cannot not be said for the country as a whole.
So much for a plausible BJP/Modi defeat in Bihar. But what if the shoe is on the other foot? What happens to Nitish Kumar if the tide turns against him? If the young voters of Bihar, who overwhelmingly supported Modi in the parliamentary elections by returning as many as 22 BJP candidates (the NDA coalition won 31) out of the 40 in the Lok Sabha elections, continue to keep their faith in him, it could well spell absolute disaster for Kumar, although you can never write off an Indian politician, especially one from Bihar.
By aligning with the corruption-tainted friend-turned-foe-turned-friend Lalu Prasad, Nitish Kumar is trying to play on sentiments of Biharis as he thinks they still owe their allegiance to their respective caste leaders.
It could end up being a bigger miscalculation than the one he made in the 2014 or the one Modi made in Delhi in 2015. Nearly a third of voters in the state are below the age of 35. And they influence the thinking of an equal number or even more.
These aspirational voters are unlikely to be moved by caste considerations, especially if the one seeking their votes is a convicted felon like Lalu Prasad or even someone who associates with him.
In the wake of the resounding defeat in the Lok Sabha elections Kumar had made a big show of relinquishing his chief ministerial post as a penance. But he soon found out that being out of power was not a very good thing for a politician. Discerning Biharis would have realised that it was all drama and nothing else.
Another defeat at the hands of Narendra Modi would leave Nitish Kumar in the wilderness. As for Lalu Prasad, it could well be a double whammy as the five-year jail term for his role in the fodder scam could become a reality soon.
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