(MENAFN- Gulf Times) Before August 17, everything in the Thai tourism sector was rosy. Visitor numbers had recovered after last year's political unrest, the subsequent coup in May 2014 and the almost one-year long imposition of martial law in the country, mostly owing to a growing number of travellers from China, as well as Malaysia, Japan and the Middle East. Minister of Tourism and Sports Kobkarn Wattanavrangkul happily forecast 28.5mn to 29mn foreign tourists to visit the country this year, up from 24.7mn in the "coup year" 2014. Arrivals in July 2015 alone rose 38% to 17.5mn year-on-year, she said at an August 5 press conference in Bangkok, adding that the industry has "strongly bounced back." To attract more and usually better spending Middle Eastern tourists, focus has been laid on halal food and halal services, collaborations with Middle East airlines such as Etihad Airways, Emirates and Gulf Air. Qatar Airways and Emirates increased their services to Bangkok.
But at 6:55pm on August 17, everything changed.
Downtown Bangkok was hit by a massive bomb blast at a popular tourist spot, killing more than 20 people € among them Chinese and Malaysians, people from the most important source markets € and injuring more than 125. It was the heaviest blow for the industry ever, dwarfing the 2011 floods, the 2013/14 political crisis and street demonstrations and even the 2010 military crackdown, all incidents where foreigners had rarely been caught up with.
However, while there are of course still tourists around, most of them now have a nervous look in their eyes € and many of the normally well patronised restaurants in Bangkok downtown are almost empty in the days after the blast. Most Thai people's faces have lost their smile, many are staring unbelievingly on their mobile devices to catch the latest news on the bombing. There is sight of extra security forces and armed soldiers in Bangkok, which further weighs on tourist confidence. All public waste bins have disappeared in central Bangkok, be it in front of convenience stores or at bus and train stations € someone could hide a bomb there. Fake bombs have been placed by unknown people at strategic traffic hubs, making the tense situation worse.
Many Chinese tour groups have reportedly cancelled their Thailand visit € no wonder, Chinese tourists are currently most at risk, as they make one out of five tourists. Overall, Thai Airways President Charamporn Jotikasthira said that 20 per cent of travellers changed their flight plans for Thailand after the bomb explosion. Tourism Minister Wattanavrangkul conceded that the bombing "could have a psychological impact on foreign tourists, particularly Chinese." Hotel cancellations are expected to rise over the next two weeks. However, for some reason she said she was maintaining her visitor target for the full year.
More than 20 countries have issued travel alerts, including the US, Australia, China and Hong Kong, Japan, Malaysia, Singapore, South Korea, Canada, Germany, Austria, New Zealand, Russia and the UK. No Middle Eastern country has warned to travel to Thailand so far, though.
BMI Research, a subsidiary of financial information provider Fitch Group, quickly came out with an assessment of the Thai tourism industry after the fatal blast.
"The explosion that struck a major tourism hot spot in the heart of Bangkok on August 17 could undermine the recovery of the tourism industry, deepening the country's economic woes," the report said, adding that "the hotel and restaurant sectors could see particular setbacks undermining government efforts to bolster the ailing economy."
Thailand depends heavily on tourism, which has a share of 9% in GDP, according to the World Travel and Tourism Council, or up to 20% by some calculations when indirect contribution to the economy and the grey sector is factored in. A drop of up to 10 per cent in the short could be possible, say analysts.
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