(MENAFN- The Peninsula) Asian spot prices for liquefied natural gas (LNG) already 60 percent off a record hit last year are set to fall further in the second half of 2015 as slowing demand comes up against a flood of supplies and oil prices remain weak.
The average import price into top LNG buyer Japan fell to its lowest in nearly six years in June, to just above Asian spot prices also holding near multi-year lows.
With oil prices less than half of last year's peak, Japan - which buys most of its gas on contracts linked to oil and takes about a third of global LNG shipments - will have little incentive to turn to spot cargoes, analysts and traders said.
"Long-term prices are likely to head lower, reflecting a sharp fall in crude prices since the second half of last year," said Junzo Tamamizu, managing partner of Clavis Energy Partners.
"Japan's spot LNG demand is also on the decline with spot needs for summer in the doldrums," he said, adding there were few short-term cargoes due for delivery in August, typically the middle of the hot season.
The average import price to Japan fell to $8.65 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) in June, trade data showed. Over the same month, spot prices of $7.30-$7.70 per mmBtu were just up from a five-year low of $6.70 reached in February.
Japan's imports of LNG broke successive annual records following the Fukushima nuclear disaster of 2011 that led to the shutdown of the country's reactors, pushing power utilities to the brink of financial ruin as spot prices surged.
But demand is likely to start shrinking with the restart of two of the nuclear units in August and October, Tamamizu said.
The picture is similar in South Korea, where all 23 nuclear reactors are running after some were shut due for safety concerns, with a new one scheduled to start soon. That means less demand for LNG in the No.2 buyer of the fuel as well.
In China, the government is trying to encourage higher domestic production of natural gas by raising wholesale prices, but that has weakened demand for LNG in a slowing economy.
"The enthusiasm to import spot LNG is weaker than last year. Lower domestic demand and the lack of access to receiving terminals are behind that," said a senior LNG trading source with an independent importer based in Beijing.
And with Asian utilities fully stocked and Australia ramping up output that will see it pass Qatar to become the biggest LNG exporter within the next three years, low prices are expected to continue to plague LNG producers.
Adding to the glut, the United States is expected to begin exports of LNG later this year or early in 2016, bringing cheap shale gas to new markets.
In a likely sign of poor demand at home, Japanese utilities are seeking to sell cargoes they are committed to taking from US projects, as well as looking to buy import capacity at European LNG terminals, trading sources said.
Weaker demand in Asia is also adding to the woes of the LNG carrier market, where a glut of new tankers could further undercut freight rates at five-year lows and force ship operators to idle ships, maritime industry executives said.
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