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The collapse in global oil prices will see Canada's energy-related fixed investment fall and unemployment rise which will hurt household spending levels this year and next. Our latest oil-price revisions have prompted us to downgrade Canada's real GDP growth forecast from 2.1% to 1.5% in 2015. Canadian households will - on balance- benefit from the decline in fuel prices adding to their disposable income and limiting the downside to private consumption growth in the next two years. However we have lowered our 2015 real private consumption growth forecast from 2.5% to 1.8% as business sentiment and hiring expectations have moved decidedly lower.
Headline Industry Forecasts (local currency)
* 2015 per capita food consumption growth = +1.5% year-on-year (y-o-y); forecast compound annual growth rate (CAGR) 2014 to 2019 = +1.5%;
* 2015 alcoholic drink sales growth = +3.8% y-o-y; forecast CAGR 2014 to 2019 = +4.2%;
* 2015 soft drink sales growth = +4.2% y-o-y; forecast CAGR 2014 to 2019 = +4.1%;
* 2015 mass grocery retail sales growth = +3.6% y-o-y; forecast CAGR 2014 to 2019 = +3.5%.
Full Report Details at
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Key Industry Trends And Developments
Local Food Fund Provides Ontario Investment: It was reported in June 2015 that the government of the Canadian province of Ontario will invest around CAD5.2mn (USD4.16mn) in food projects to promote local food production through its Local Food Fund. The investment is part of Ontario's plan to boost consumer awareness and access to locally produced food and beverages grown and produced in the province. Ontario-based VG Meats and Longo Brothers Fruit Markets will receive CAD948025 (USD758472.4) and CAD446138 (USD356888) respectively from the government. The Local Food Fund will also support 12 other local food projects.
Walmart Snaps Up Target Stores : In May 2015 Walmart announced plans to buy 13 former Target Canada stores and a distribution centre in Ontario. The retailer said that it will spend about CAD165mn for...
The Canada Food & Drink Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts for food and drink expenditure consumption sales and imports/exports and forecasts for the mass grocery retail sector. The report also includes analyses of major regulatory developments the background macroeconomic outlook and competitive landscape comparing national and multinational companies by leading products and services sales investments partners and expansion strategies.
BMI's Canada Food & Drink Report provides industry professionals and strategists sector analysts business investors trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the food and drink industry and the mass grocery retail market in Canada.
Key Benefits
* Benchmark BMI's independent food and drink industry forecasts for Canada to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Canadian food and drink market.
* Target business opportunities and risks in Canada through our reviews of latest industry trends regulatory changes and major deals projects and investments.
* Exploit latest competitive intelligence on your competitors partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.
Coverage
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views covering food and drink manufacturing and consumption and the mass grocery retail market.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major strengths weaknesses opportunities and threats within the food drink and mass grocery retail sectors and within the broader political economic and business environment.
BMI’s Food and Drink Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (food and drink manufacturers and mass grocery retailers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry economic and demographic points. These provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors with each position explained.
Food Forecasts
BMI’s food chapter is divided into sections such as meat fish confectionary dairy and canned foods and provides insight into each market’s food industry centred on a forecast to end-2019 for the sector. The chapter includes the following elements:
* Industry Forecast Scenario: Historical data series and a forecast to end-2019 for growth of key indicators within a market’s food industry. Indicators include food consumption food consumption as % of GDP canned food sales confectionery sales and food and drink imports and exports among others.
* Industry Developments: A summary of corporate developments including news on M&As FDI expansions closures and financial results in addition to analysis and explanation of the latest industry events and how these could influence further investment.
* Market Overview: An overview of the structure of the market introducing the key players and discussing underlying trends.
Drink Forecasts
Segmented the same way as BMI’s food chapter the drink section provides insight into each market’s drink industry centred on a forecast to end-2019 for the sector. Forecast indicators include alcoholic and soft drink sales by value volume and sub-sector and tea and coffee sales among others.
Mass Grocery Retail Forecasts
Segmented the same way as BMI’s food and drink chapters the mass grocery retail section provides insight into each market’s grocery retail industry centred on a forecast to end-2019 for the sector. Forecast indicators include mass grocery retail sales by format (including supermarkets hypermarkets convenience and discount stores) and a breakdown of the organised retail sector versus the traditional sector among others.
Competitive Landscape
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