(MENAFN- The Peninsula) Qatar's real estate prices are expected to continue their strong growth, although at a more moderate pace, on strong population growth and higher per capita GDP.
QNB's monthly monitor noted yesterday that Qatar Central Bank's (QCB) real estate index rose 29.6 percent year-on-year in March 2015 reflecting a moderation in the real estate price inflation for the second successive month.
QNB expects the merchandise trade surplus to shrink to $49.9bn in 2015 from $100.6bn in 2014 on lower oil price.
Qatar population grew by 9.0 percent year-on-year in June 2015 to reach 2.34m, driven by the large ramp up in infrastructure spending.
QNB expects Qatar's ongoing investment programme to continue to attract expatriates, resulting in an overall population growth of seven percent in 2015. QNB analysts expect inflation to pick up as the growing population is expected to push up domestic inflation, offsetting slower foreign inflation.
The merchandise trade surplus is expected to shrink to $49.9bn in 2015 from $100.6bn in 2014 on lower oil price. Foreign merchandise trade surplus narrowed to $4.1bn in April 2015 down from $8.5bn a year earlier.
The decline was mostly due to the fall in petroleum exports, which decreased by 41.9 percent year-on-year on lower oil prices; imports rose by 19.5 percent over the same period on strong domestic demand.
The current account surplus is expected to shrink to $3.7bn in 2015 due to lower oil prices, before recovering slightly in 2016-17 in line with the recovery in oil prices.
The accumulation of international reserves is expected to continue, reaching $46.0bn, or 8.0 months of import cover at end-2015. International reserves rose to $41.8bn in May 2015 from $41.0bn in April. In months of prospective import cover, international reserves were stable at 7.4 months of imports.
QNB expects a double-digit deposit growth of 11.3 percent in 2015 reflecting strong population growth. Bank deposits year-on-year growth accelerated to 7.7 percent in May 2015 from 6.1 percent in April. Public sector deposits contracted by 4.3 percent year-on-year in May 2015; private sector deposits grew by 6.6 percent; non-resident deposits nearly doubled, growing by 99.5 percent.
The bank lending is forecast to grow by 9.0 percent in 2015,increasingly driven by project lending and the expanding population; as a result the loan to deposit ratio is expected to decline gradually to reach 106.5 percent in 2015.
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