(MENAFNEditorial)
Indonesia is home to the fourth largest population in the world and possesses one of the fastest growing economies in the world. Total household spending in the world ' s largest Muslim country will grow annually by 10.16 % on average over our forecast period. As a result retailers increasingly perceive the country as a lucrative investment destination. Nevertheless the number of foreign retailers remains somewhat limited with local Indonesian brands playing an important role in the competitive landscape.
A robust economic backdrop prevails in Indonesia despite a slight slump in domestic consumption. For 2015 we forecast real GDP to remain steady with growth of 5.5% expected and we believe this will increase to 6.3% in 2016. While we believe the Indonesian economy shows signs of resilience over the coming years pressures still exist owing to lower global commodity prices as well as weakened demand from major trading partners such as China. Nevertheless the country is positioned to experience steady growth in household spending which we are forecasting to increase from USD512bn in 2015 to USD819bn in 2019. This represents an impressive average annual growth rate of 10.16%.
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Despite the strong levels economic growth and increasing spending. Indonesia's retail market remains largely underdeveloped and there is a notable absence of large modern retail chains especially when considering the size of the market. The majority of Indonesia's 256mn people make their daily purchases in traditional family-run retail stores which continue to dominate especially in the suburban or rural areas. The underdeveloped nature of the market is evident in a number of areas. The food & non-alcoholic drinks sub-sector continues to boast the largest share of total household spending and will reach 36.1% of the total in 2015. The other two sub-sectors of essential goods - housing & utilities and transport - will also take a large part of spending. All of these...
The Indonesia Retail Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent assessment and forecasts for the retail sector. The report examines key drivers of retail sales growth and future prospects including consumer spending and private sector investment.
BMI's Indonesia Retail Report also examines the level of development and potential for growth of the retail sector the commercial initiatives of major players changing consumer demographics that influence demand and the regulatory environment. Key sub-sectors include mass grocery retail autos over-the-counter pharmaceuticals computers and consumer electronics.
Key Benefits
* Benchmark BMI's independent retail industry forecasts for Indonesia to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Indonesian retail market.
* Target business opportunities and risks in Indonesia through our reviews of latest industry trends regulatory changes and major deals projects and investments.
Coverage
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis plus a discussion of major industry developments and a snapshot of key short-term demand-driving macroeconomic movements.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths Weaknesses Opportunities and Threats within the retail sector and within the broader political economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
There are four separate 5-year forecast modules in the retail reports. These are:
* Headline Retail Forecast: Total household spending (local currency and USDbn % growth % GDP per capita per household) spending by retail sector (food & non-alcoholic drink alcoholic drink clothing & footwear housing & utilities furnishings & home health transport recreation education restaurants & hotels personal care & insurance (local currency and USDbn % growth % GDP % of total spending)
* Retail Sector Forecast: Breakdown of Food Non Alcoholic Drink Alcohol Tobacco Clothing Footwear Household Goods Furnishings Appliances Glass and Tablewear Household Textiles Consumer Electronics Garden Toys and Pets Home and Garden tools Personal Care Personal Effects Spending (USDbn % Growth)
* Household Income and Numbers Forecast: Number of Households (‘000 % growth); gross income per household and per capita; net income per household and per capita; tax and social contributions per capita; breakdown of household incomes – USD5000+ USD10000+ USD50000+ (‘000 % of total); labour force employment and unemployment (‘000 % change)
* Demographic Forecast: Total population; Babies 0-12 months; Young Children 0-4yrs; Children 5-9yrs; Young Teens and Older Children 10-14yrs; Older Teens 15-19yrs; Adults 21yrs +; Young Adults 21-29yrs; Middle Aged 40-64yrs (‘000 % growth male female); Urban Population (‘000 % population); Rural Population (‘000 % population).
BMI’s Retail Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors with each position explained.
Market Overview
Provides a detailed country-specific analysis of the key trends and developments in the retail sector as a whole as well as an assessment of the main drivers affecting the major retail segments including mass grocery retail fashion pharmacies consumer electronics home improvement and personal care. The market overview also considers the most effective store formats in a given country and the impact of these factors on the main international and domestic players’ development strategies.
Competitive Landscape
This provides a brief overview of the key players in each subsection of the retail sector including MGR Fashion Home Improvement Consumer Electronics Pharmacies and Department Store chains.
Sources
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