(MENAFNEditorial)
Core Views
* Qatar's short-term political risk profile remains among the most stable in the region. Despite enjoying little in the way of democratic freedom Qataris benefit from massive hydrocarbon wealth which is spread generously across the country's native population and enjoy the highest per capita GDP in the world. A small population - and one without much inclination to protest against the government - will keep the country insulated from large-scale public unrest in the immediate term.
* The Qatari economy will continue to expand at a rapid pace over the next few years supported by accommodative fiscal policy - notably infrastructure spending - and strong population increases. The non-hydrocarbons economy will propel growth with construction activity and the services sector set to remain the dominant performers.
* We forecast real headline growth of 6.6% and 6.1% in 2015 and 2016 respectively. Lower hydrocarbon prices present no immediate threat to Qatar's infrastructure investments and economic performance. The new Barzan gas development which is scheduled to come on-stream in 2015 will shore up growth in the hydrocarbon sector throughout the coming quarters.
* Lower hydrocarbons prices do not present a significant threat to Qatar's fiscal sustainability. Nevertheless the government will seek to tighten control over public spending and rationalise Qatar's vast pipeline of infrastructure projects - a trend that will be positive for the economy over the longer run.
Full Report Details at
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Key Risks To Outlook
* Given the economy's heavy reliance on the hydrocarbon sector a pronounced global economic downturn - if it were to translate into a sustained drop-off in demand for oil and gas - could impact negatively on our forecasts for Qatar's external account position budget and growth outlook. That said we highlight that the country's USD256bn sovereign wealth fund - as well as its continuing ability to tap international debt markets - provides the economy with...
The Qatar Country Risk Report helps businesses with market assessment strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in Qatar. It is an essential tool for CEOs Chairmen Finance Directors/CFOs Managing Directors Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market.
An influential new analysis of Qatar's economic political and financial prospects through end-2019 just published by award-winning forecasters BMI Research.
Key Uses
* Forecast the pace and stability of Qatar's economic and industry growth through end-2019.
* Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends to facilitate risk mitigation.
* Assess the critical shortcomings of the operating environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability.
* Contextualise Qatar's country risks against regional peers using BMI's country comparative Risk Index system.
* Evaluate external threats to doing business in Qatar including currency volatility the commodity price boom and protectionist policies.
The Qatar Country Risk Report by BMI Research includes four major sections:Economic OutlookPolitical OutlookOperational RiskandKey Sector Outlook.
Economic Outlook:
How will the Qatar' economic policy-making and performance impact on corporate profitability over 2015-2019?
BMI provides our fully independent 5-year forecasts for Qatar through end-2019 for more than 50 economic and key industry indicators. We evaluate growth and also forecast the impact of economic management.
Economic Outlook Contents
The Qatar Country Risk Report features BMI's forecasts with supporting analysis for 2015 through to end-2019 set against government views and BMI's evaluation of global and regional prospects.
Key Areas Covered:
Data:
* Full 10-year forecasts with data - for key macroeconomic variables including GDP (real growth and per capita) population inflation current account balance and the exchange rate.
* BMI's comprehensive Risk Index system - rates each country worldwide for economic and political risk and rates the business environment within a global and regional context.
Written Analysis:
* Economic Activity - real GDP growth employment inflation consumption (retail sales and confidence).
* Balance of Payments - trade and investment current and capital account.
* Monetary Policy - interest rate trends (bank lending and deposit rates) and inflation (producer price and consumer price).
* Exchange Rate Policy - currency controls foreign investment flows exchange rates and foreign exchange reserves.
* Fiscal Policy - macroeconomic strategy and policies government finance and tax reforms.
* Foreign Direct Investment - approvals inflows and climate.
* External Debt - debt profile (short and long-term plus public and private sector obligations).
* Global Assumptions - forecasts for each year to end-2019 covering: major commodities growth in key regions inflation and interest and exchange rates in the United States Japan China and the eurozone.
Key Benefits
* Rely upon BMI's 100% independent forecast scenarios for Qatar and underlying assumptions - we take no advertising and are privately-owned.
* Exploit the benefits of BMI's comprehensive and reliable macroeconomic database on Qatar sourced and fully maintained by BMI from an extensive network of private sector government and multilateral contacts.
* Gain key insights into the current and future direction of government economic policy which could significantly affect your company's business prospects from BMI's team of analysts and economists.
Political Outlook:
What are the political risks to doing business in Qatar over the next 5-years?
BMI's Qatar country Risk Index evaluates the short- and medium-term threats to political stability.
Political Outlook Contents
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