(MENAFNEditorial)
Core Views
* A nascent economic recovery will be delayed until at least 2016 in Greece as uncertainty surrounding the country's bailout negotiations destroys consumer and business confidence.
* Greece and its creditors should eventually compromise in its bailout negotiations unlocking the final tranche of the country's bailout. This should prevent a Greek exit from the eurozone in 2015 although the ruling Syriza administration is unlikely to survive in its current form until the end of the year.
* Deposit flight from the banking sector will continue hindering bank lending. This should not cause a liquidity crisis in the sector so long as the European Central Bank (ECB) continues providing the country with Emergency Liquidity Assistance (ELA) funding (as we expect).
* Greece's internal devaluation has further to run and the country will remain stuck in deflation in 2015.
Full Report Details at
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Major Forecast Changes
* We have revised down our real GDP forecast to 0.4% in 2015 from 0.8% previously as we expect consumer spending and investment to collapse amidst ongoing political uncertainty.
* We forecast the current account to post surpluses of 0.7% of GDP in 2015 and 1.0% of GDP the following the year down from 1.5% and 2.0% previously due to a deteriorating outlook for tourism and weak export growth.
Key Risks To Outlook
* If Syriza fails to reach an arrangement to unlock bailout funds over the coming months then Greece would be eventually be forced to re-introduce drachma. No economy can function without liquidity and the Bank of Greece would have little choice but to print a currency to repay debt obligations and to prevent a complete breakdown of the financial system.
* An FX devaluation following a Grexit would make imports very expensive boosting inflation and limiting household purchasing power. Ultimately the country would be plunged into a massive economic crisis.
The Greece Country Risk Report helps businesses with market assessment strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in Greece. It is an essential tool for CEOs Chairmen Finance Directors/CFOs Managing Directors Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market.
An influential new analysis of Greece's economic political and financial prospects through end-2019 just published by award-winning forecasters Business Monitor International (BMI).
Key Uses
* Forecast the pace and stability of Greece's economic and industry growth through end-2019.
* Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends to facilitate risk mitigation.
* Assess the critical shortcomings of the operating environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability.
* Contextualise Greece's country risks against regional peers using BMI's country comparative Risk Index system.
* Evaluate external threats to doing business in Greece including currency volatility the commodity price boom and protectionist policies.
The Greece Country Risk Report by Business Monitor International (BMI) includes four major sections:Economic OutlookPolitical OutlookOperational RiskandKey Sector Outlook.
Economic Outlook:
How will the Greece' economic policy-making and performance impact on corporate profitability over 2015-2019?
BMI provides our fully independent 5-year forecasts for Greece through end-2019 for more than 50 economic and key industry indicators. We evaluate growth and also forecast the impact of economic management.
Economic Outlook Contents
The Greece Country Risk Report features BMI's forecasts with supporting analysis for 2015 through to end-2019 set against government views and BMI's evaluation of global and regional prospects.
Key Areas Covered:
Data:
* Full 10-year forecasts with data - for key macroeconomic variables including GDP (real growth and per capita) population inflation current account balance and the exchange rate.
* BMI's comprehensive Risk Index system - rates each country worldwide for economic and political risk and rates the business environment within a global and regional context.
Written Analysis:
* Economic Activity - real GDP growth employment inflation consumption (retail sales and confidence).
* Balance of Payments - trade and investment current and capital account.
* Monetary Policy - interest rate trends (bank lending and deposit rates) and inflation (producer price and consumer price).
* Exchange Rate Policy - currency controls foreign investment flows exchange rates and foreign exchange reserves.
* Fiscal Policy - macroeconomic strategy and policies government finance and tax reforms.
* Foreign Direct Investment - approvals inflows and climate.
* External Debt - debt profile (short and long-term plus public and private sector obligations).
* Global Assumptions - forecasts for each year to end-2019 covering: major commodities growth in key regions inflation and interest and exchange rates in the United States Japan China and the eurozone.
Key Benefits
* Rely upon BMI's 100% independent forecast scenarios for Greece and underlying assumptions - we take no advertising and are privately-owned.
* Exploit the benefits of BMI's comprehensive and reliable macroeconomic database on Greece sourced and fully maintained by BMI from an extensive network of private sector government and multilateral contacts.
* Gain key insights into the current and future direction of government economic policy which could significantly affect your company's business prospects from BMI's team of analysts and economists.
Political Outlook:
What are the political risks to doing business in Greece over the next 5-years?
BMI's Greece country Risk Index evaluates the short- and medium-term threats to political stability.
Political Outlook Contents
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