(MENAFNEditorial)
With the prospect of a major recession looming the local currency depreciating sharply and the potential for a re-escalation of conflict in the east of Ukraine lingering there is little to instil confidence amongst investors in the country's declining infrastructure sector. With major projects put on hold due to a lack of private investment and huge pressure on public spending we therefore expect to see the fourth consecutive year of contraction in construction industry value in 2015 with transport in particular underperforming. In light of the weak domestic economy and lack of investor interest we do not expect to see any return to growth prior to 2017 with the entire infrastructure sector remaining subdued throughout the forecast period.
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Key Trends And Developments
* Ukraine's economic outlook remains extremely weak with BMI's Ukraine Country Risk analysts forecasting real GDP to contract by 5.3% in 2015 alongside high inflation and extensive currency depreciation.
* With official statistics showing an even sharper than expected contraction in construction in 2014 we have further downgraded our 2015 forecasts and now expect residential and non-residential construction value to contract by 14.4% in real terms in 2015 on a year-on-year (y-o-y) basis and infrastructure industry value by 9.1%.
* Ukraine continues to rely heavily upon external funding such as the recently announced USD15bn investment by China in affordable housing construction and European Investment Bank loans for reconstruction of damaged energy and transport infrastructure.
* The government has released a list of nearly 300 state owned companies due to privatisation (fully or partly) in 2015 including several power plants and ports.
* Our forecasts are likely to be subject to further revision as economic political and security events unfold. If tensions do not ease the sector could suffer from further economic pressure with severe downside risks remaining a major burden.
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The Ukraine Infrastructure Report features BMI Research's market assessment and forecasts covering public procurement and spending on all major infrastructure and construction projects including transportation and logistics by land sea and air; power plants and utilities and commercial construction and property development. The report analyses the impact of regulatory changes and the macroeconomic outlook and features competitive intelligence on contractors and suppliers.
BMI's Ukraine Infrastructure Report provides industry professionals and strategists sector analysts investors trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Ukrainian infrastructure and construction industry.
Key Benefits
* Benchmark BMI's independent infrastructure industry forecasts for Ukraine to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Ukrainian infrastructure market.
* Target business opportunities and risks in the Ukrainian infrastructure sector through our reviews of latest industry trends regulatory changes and major deals projects and investments in Ukraine.
* Assess the activities strategy and market position of your competitors partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs KPIs and latest activity).
Coverage
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts views and trend analysis covering infrastructure and construction regulatory changes major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments. These are broken down into construction (social commercial and residential) transport (roads railways ports airports etc) and energy & utilities (powerplants pipelines and so on).
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major strengths weaknesses opportunities and threats within the infrastructure and construction sectors and within the broader political economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series (up to 2012) and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators supported by explicit assumptions plus analysis of key developments in the market and risks to the main forecasts. Indicators include:
Construction: Industry value (USDbn); contribution to GDP (%); total capital investment (USDbn); real growth (%).
Construction industry real growth forecasts (%) and industry value (USDbn) forecasts for industry sectors are split into Residential and Non-residential and Infrastructure sectors. Where the data is available for particular countries the infrastructure is further broken down into indicators for the transport subsectors of roads railways airports and ports and the energy and utilities sub-sectors of power plants and transmission grids oil & gas pipelines and water infrastructure. This dataset is unique to the market.
The reports also include analysis of latest projects across the infrastructure sectors (transport utilities commercial construction).
BMI’s Infrastructure Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (construction companies suppliers and partners) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry economic and demographic data points. These provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors with each position explained.
Market Overview
An assessment of the competitive landscape and key challenges to entering the market. Details of the largest companies active in the sector across the sub-segments of the industry including the key financial figures from some of the largest players in the sector.
Company Profiles*
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