(MENAFNEditorial)
Core Views
* The short-term economic outlook has improved in light of accelerating regional economic activity and a slight rebound in domestic demand.
* The corporate sector remains overleveraged and will remain a major risk to the banking sector - unless ultimately some form of restructuring takes place whether on the loans itself to reduce debt servicing costs or through cost cutting (shedding jobs/trimming investment).
Major Forecast Changes
* We have upgraded our forecasts for real GDP growth in 2015 on the back of stronger than expected exports and early indications that household consumption is finally recovering.
Full Report Details at
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Risks To Outlook
* Politics remains a key risk to the national reform programme with the details of how to slash the budget deficit during a downturn likely to highlight differences between coalition partners. Any sign that the reform programme is at risk of delay or suspension will have an immediate and punishing impact on market sentiment towards Slovenia pushing the country closer to a bailout.
* A big risk to the Slovenian economy lies abroad. A major deterioration in the eurozone sovereign debt crisis or even just a greater-than-expected slowdown in the core eurozone nations would have severe knock-on effects on the Slovenian economy not only via depressed trade and investment flows but also via credit channels and broader economic sentiment.
The Slovenia Country Risk Report helps businesses with market assessment strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in Slovenia. It is an essential tool for CEOs Chairmen Finance Directors/CFOs Managing Directors Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market.
An influential new analysis of Slovenia's economic political and financial prospects through end-2019 just published by award-winning forecasters BMI Research.
Key Uses
* Forecast the pace and stability of Slovenia's economic and industry growth through end-2019.
* Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends to facilitate risk mitigation.
* Assess the critical shortcomings of the operating environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability.
* Contextualise Slovenia's country risks against regional peers using BMI's country comparative Risk Index system.
* Evaluate external threats to doing business in Slovenia including currency volatility the commodity price boom and protectionist policies.
The Slovenia Country Risk Report by BMI Research includes four major sections:Economic OutlookPolitical OutlookOperational RiskandKey Sector Outlook.
Economic Outlook:
How will the Slovenia' economic policy-making and performance impact on corporate profitability over 2015-2019?
BMI provides our fully independent 5-year forecasts for Slovenia through end-2019 for more than 50 economic and key industry indicators. We evaluate growth and also forecast the impact of economic management.
Economic Outlook Contents
The Slovenia Country Risk Report features BMI's forecasts with supporting analysis for 2015 through to end-2019 set against government views and BMI's evaluation of global and regional prospects.
Key Areas Covered:
Data:
* Full 10-year forecasts with data - for key macroeconomic variables including GDP (real growth and per capita) population inflation current account balance and the exchange rate.
* BMI's comprehensive Risk Index system - rates each country worldwide for economic and political risk and rates the business environment within a global and regional context.
Written Analysis:
* Economic Activity - real GDP growth employment inflation consumption (retail sales and confidence).
* Balance of Payments - trade and investment current and capital account.
* Monetary Policy - interest rate trends (bank lending and deposit rates) and inflation (producer price and consumer price).
* Exchange Rate Policy - currency controls foreign investment flows exchange rates and foreign exchange reserves.
* Fiscal Policy - macroeconomic strategy and policies government finance and tax reforms.
* Foreign Direct Investment - approvals inflows and climate.
* External Debt - debt profile (short and long-term plus public and private sector obligations).
* Global Assumptions - forecasts for each year to end-2019 covering: major commodities growth in key regions inflation and interest and exchange rates in the United States Japan China and the eurozone.
Key Benefits
* Rely upon BMI's 100% independent forecast scenarios for Slovenia and underlying assumptions - we take no advertising and are privately-owned.
* Exploit the benefits of BMI's comprehensive and reliable macroeconomic database on Slovenia sourced and fully maintained by BMI from an extensive network of private sector government and multilateral contacts.
* Gain key insights into the current and future direction of government economic policy which could significantly affect your company's business prospects from BMI's team of analysts and economists.
Political Outlook:
What are the political risks to doing business in Slovenia over the next 5-years?
BMI's Slovenia country Risk Index evaluates the short- and medium-term threats to political stability.
Political Outlook Contents
* SWOT Analysis for the Slovenia Market - Political Strengths Weaknesses Opportunities and Threats facing Slovenia.
* Political Stability and Risk Assessment - BMI's Risk Index assesses explicit short- and long-term risks to political stability; latest positioning and trends for Slovenia's risk are compared with regional and global averages.
* Current Administration and Policy-making BMI assesses the threats to the continuity of economic policy and likely changes to the business operating environment.
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