(MENAFNEditorial)
A vast pipeline of power projects under construction and our forecast for sustained growth in power consumption over the coming decade support our positive outlook for Colombia's power sector. While h ydropower will remain the dominant source of electricity in the country we see upside potential for our growth forecast for gas-fired generation due to Colombia's cyclical exposure to dry weather . The resurgence of FARC's attacks against power infrastructure has increased the country's risk profile but we maintain that a peace agreement will eventually be reached.
The sharp fall in global oil prices since the second half of 2014 has darkened BMI's outlook for Colombia's economy with our Country Risk team expecting real GDP to expand at an average annual rate of 3.4% between 2015 and 2024 down from 4%. Nevertheless we expect robust expansion in the country's mining and manufacturing industries will continue to drive strong growth in electricity consumption over the next decade.
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Private investment into new power capacity will ensure Colombia's growing power needs are met with sufficient supply. As large-scale hydropower plants account for the majority of Colombia's project pipeline we expect hydropower to remain the main source of electricity generation in the country - accounting on average for 70% of the total power mix over the next 10 years. Natural gas-fired generation Colombia's second largest source of electricity will grow at an average annual rate of 1.6% between 2015 and 2024. We highlight however that we see upside potential for this forecast as gas-fired generation is ramped up in Colombia when dry weather reduces hydropower supply. Colombia is cyclically exposed to a risk of droughts due to the El Nino weather phenomenon which hits the country every three to five years.
Colombia's peace talks with insurgent group Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia (FARC) are entering a make-or-break phase with the failure of...
The Colombia Power Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts covering electricity generation (coal gas oil nuclear hydro and non-hydro renewables) electricity consumption trade transmission and distribution losses and electricity generating capacity.
The Colombia Power Report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing national and multinational operators by sales market share investments projects partners and expansion strategies.
Key Benefits
* Use BMI's independent industry forecasts for Colombia to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic planning in the power market.
* Target business opportunities and risks Colombia's power sector through our reviews of latest power industry trends regulatory changes and major deals projects and investments in Colombia.
* Assess the activities strategy and market position of your competitors partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape analysis.
Coverage
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts views and trend analysis covering power markets regulatory changes major investments projects and company developments.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths Weaknesses Opportunities and Threats within the power sector and within the broader political economic and business environment.
BMI’s Power Forecast Scenario
Forecasts to end-2024 for all key indicators supported by explicit assumptions plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
* Generation: Electricity generation total thermal coal natural gas oil nuclear hydropower hydro-electric pumped storage and non-hydropower renewables.
* Transmission and Distribution Losses: Electric power transmission and distribution losses.
* Trade: Total imports and exports.
* Electricity Consumption: Net consumption.
* Electricity Capacity: Capacity net conventional thermal nuclear hydropower and non-hydroelectric renewables.
BMI’s Power Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (power companies service companies and equity investors) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors
Market Overview
Structure size and value of the industry sector; overview of the industry landscape and key players; an assessment of the business operating environment sustainable energy policies pricing and the latest regulatory developments.
Key Projects Database
Details and analysis of all current and planned developments (new ventures capacity expansion and other investments) across the sector broken down by location sector type capacity value companies and operational status.
Competitive Landscape
Illustration of the power industry that exploits our data-rich in-depth analysis of the leading players in the sector and examination of operational results strategic goals market position and the potential for investment.
Power Outlook long-Term Forecasts
Regional long-term power forecasts covering electricity generation consumption and capacity for thermal hydroelectric and nuclear power. These are supported by a country specific overview alongside an analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts.
Regional Overview
Providing BMI’s near-term economic outlook for the region as a whole as well as taking a close look at countries of particular interest and the latest trends and developments.
Sources
The Power Market Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources such as multilateral organisations government departments industry associations chambers and company reports including Energy Information Administration (EIA) World Bank (WB) and United Nations (UN).
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