(MENAFNEditorial)
Low natural gas prices EPA's emissions regulations and strong growth in solar and wind power will all lead to the displacement of coal as the main source of power generation in the US electricity mix. As growth in gas power and renewables continues a pace hydro power and nuclear will see only limited growth. I nvestment in gas pipeline infrastructure will be needed to overcome gas supply bottlenecks and the grid will need to be upgraded to ensure it can handle the growing influx of intermittent renewable energy.
The dynamics governing the US power market continue to be driven by the country's shale gas boom with low gas prices set to determine the composition of the energy mix. While gas remains cheap the outlook for utilities that operate coal-fired and nuclear capacity is muted. A subdued project pipeline with small-scale hydropower to offer the most notable investment opportunities in the short term underpins our bearish outlook for the hydropower sector.
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While we highlighted that the shape of the US energy mix has been contingent on coal-gas pricing dynamics over 2014 we expect gas-fired generation to rebound on an annual basis in 2015 owing to new gas capacity additions continued low Henry Hub prices and the fact that coal-fired power plants will be forced to close to comply with emissions limits mandated by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)'s regulations. Over the next decade low natural gas prices will continue to drive up the share of gas in the US electricity generation mix at the expense of coal regardless of regulatory frictions.
Key Trends And Developments
* In contrast with the reference scenario of the Energy Information Administration (EIA)'s 2015 Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) we reiterate our view that coal share in the US power mix is on an irreversible decline and that natural gas will displace it as the main source of power generation as early as 2023. This shift will be due to existing EPA's...
The United States Power Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts covering electricity generation (coal gas oil nuclear hydro and non-hydro renewables) electricity consumption trade transmission and distribution losses and electricity generating capacity.
The United States Power Report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing national and multinational operators by sales market share investments projects partners and expansion strategies.
Key Benefits
* Use BMI's independent industry forecasts for United States to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic planning in the power market.
* Target business opportunities and risks United States's power sector through our reviews of latest power industry trends regulatory changes and major deals projects and investments in United States.
* Assess the activities strategy and market position of your competitors partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape analysis.
Coverage
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts views and trend analysis covering power markets regulatory changes major investments projects and company developments.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths Weaknesses Opportunities and Threats within the power sector and within the broader political economic and business environment.
BMI’s Power Forecast Scenario
Forecasts to end-2024 for all key indicators supported by explicit assumptions plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
* Generation: Electricity generation total thermal coal natural gas oil nuclear hydropower hydro-electric pumped storage and non-hydropower renewables.
* Transmission and Distribution Losses: Electric power transmission and distribution losses.
* Trade: Total imports and exports.
* Electricity Consumption: Net consumption.
* Electricity Capacity: Capacity net conventional thermal nuclear hydropower and non-hydroelectric renewables.
BMI’s Power Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (power companies service companies and equity investors) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors
Market Overview
Structure size and value of the industry sector; overview of the industry landscape and key players; an assessment of the business operating environment sustainable energy policies pricing and the latest regulatory developments.
Key Projects Database
Details and analysis of all current and planned developments (new ventures capacity expansion and other investments) across the sector broken down by location sector type capacity value companies and operational status.
Competitive Landscape
Illustration of the power industry that exploits our data-rich in-depth analysis of the leading players in the sector and examination of operational results strategic goals market position and the potential for investment.
Power Outlook long-Term Forecasts
Regional long-term power forecasts covering electricity generation consumption and capacity for thermal hydroelectric and nuclear power. These are supported by a country specific overview alongside an analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts.
Regional Overview
Providing BMI’s near-term economic outlook for the region as a whole as well as taking a close look at countries of particular interest and the latest trends and developments.
Sources
The Power Market Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources such as multilateral organisations government departments industry associations chambers and company reports including Energy Information Administration (EIA) World Bank (WB) and United Nations (UN).
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