(MENAFNEditorial)
We believe that increased access to international markets particularly Taiwan and China will prove to be the prime growth driver for the agribusiness sector in New Zealand over the medium to long term. This will be supportive for both the dairy and the livestock segments. The dairy sector in particular will benefit from export demand growth as many other countries in Asia are facing growing domestic demand and relatively limited production capacity . However the outlook for the sector is weak for 2014/15. We forecast milk production to grow by a weak 0.7 % year-on-year to 21. 9 mn tonnes compared with the 4.0% growth recorded in 2013/14 and the five-year growth average of 4.3%.
Key Trends
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* Milk production growth to 2018/19: 8% to 23.7mn tonnes. Given the small domestic consumption base and the high productivity of the sector long-term expansion will mainly come from export opportunities particularly to Asia and the Middle East which are forecast to enjoy significant dairy consumption growth over our forecast period.
* Milk powder production growth to 2017/18: 12% to 1.6mn tonnes. Across all the dairy segments export opportunities (particularly to China) will be the main growth drivers over the medium term.
* 2015 real GDP growth: 2.4% down from 3.2% in 2014. Forecast to average 2.4% between 2015 and 2019.
Key Developments
The outlook for dairy production in the ongoing 2014/15 season ending in May has worsened over recent months. Dairy farmers are facing a double spell this season as low prices and payouts from cooperatives are concurring with drought conditions over some key producing regions which will limit herd expansion and increase feed costs. We have revised down our production forecasts for the season for all dairy products. For milk we now see output growing by a weak 0.7% year-on-year (y-o-y) to 21.9mn tonnes compared with our already conservative previous forecast of 1.8% y-o-y growth. Production of...
Report Table of Contents:
BMI Industry View
SWOT
Agribusiness
Business Environment
Industry Forecast
Livestock Outlook
Table: New Zealand Beef & Veal Production & Consumption 2013-2018
Table: New Zealand Poultry Production & Consumption 2013-2018
Table: New Zealand Beef & Veal Production & Consumption 2008-2013
Table: New Zealand Poultry Production & Consumption 2008-2013
Dairy Outlook
Table: New Zealand Milk Production & Consumption 2013-2018
Table: New Zealand Butter Production & Consumption 2013-2018
Table: New Zealand Cheese Production & Consumption 2013-2018
Table: New Zealand Whole Milk Powder Production & Consumption 2013-2018
Table: New Zealand Milk Production & Consumption 2008-2013
Table: New Zealand Butter Production & Consumption 2008-2013
Table: New Zealand Cheese Production & Consumption 2008-2013
Table: New Zealand Whole Milk Powder Production & Consumption 2008-2013
Commodities Price Analysis
Monthly Grains Update
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & Forecasts
Monthly Softs Update
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
Upstream Analysis
Asia Machinery Outlook
Table: China Grain Public Production Support Programme (CNYbn)
Asia GM Outlook
Table: Select Countries - GM Crops Use In 2012
Asia Fertiliser Outlook
Table: Global Benchmark Fertiliser Prices (US$/tonne FOB reported prices at the end of quarter)
Regional Overview
Table: Hourly Textile Industry Wages By Country (USD)
Table: Select Countries - Biofuel Blending Mandates & Programmes
Competitive Landscape
Table: Main Agribusiness Firms In New Zealand
Demographic Forecast
Table: New Zealand's Population By Age Group 1990-2020 ('000)
Table: New Zealand's Population By Age Group 1990-2020 (% of total)
Table: New Zealand's Key Population Ratios 1990-2020
Table: New Zealand's Rural And Urban Population 1990-2020
Methodology
Industry Forecast Methodology
Sector-Specific Methodology
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