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Worldwatch Institute's State of the World 2015 explores the hidden threats of the rise of energy costs
Washington D.C. - June 2 2015 (www.investorideas.com newswire) Although gas prices are temporarily low at the pump long-term energy costs are on the rise. According to State of the World 2015 contributing author Nathan John Hagens a former hedge fund manager who teaches human macro-ecology at the University of Minnesota nations are papering over those costs with debt. Higher energy costs are leading to continued recessions excess claims on future natural resources and more-severe social inequality and poverty (www.worldwatch.org).
The relatively low cost of energy extraction compared to the benefits obtained from fossil fuels has been perhaps the most important factor in the industrialized world's economic success. Historically large quantities of inexpensive fuels were available even after accounting for the energy lost to extract and process them. But as remaining fuels become less accessible higher energy costs will have ripple effects through economies built around continued large energy-input requirements. Rising costs will endanger highly energy--- intensive industries and practices-including the energy sector itself--- as well as widen and deepen poverty as everything becomes more expensive.
"Despite having 'plenty of energy' higher physical costs [of extraction] suggest that energy likely will rise from a historical average of 5 percent of GDP [gross domestic product] to 10-15 percent of GDP or higher" writes Hagens.
In the short term nations are taking on growing debt to avoid losses in GDP--- an indicator of the economic health of a country. Since 2008 the Group of Seven nations (Canada France Germany Italy Japan the United Kingdom and the United States) have added about $1 trillion per year in nominal GDP but only by increasing their debt by over $18 trillion.
However continued use of credit to mask the declining productivity of energy extraction is unsustainable. For each additional debt dollar less and less GDP is generated and at the same time our highest-energy-gain fuels are being depleted. Energy is becoming more expensive for the creditor in the future than for the debtor in the present.
"We have entered a period of unknown duration where things are going to be tough" writes Hagens. "But humanity in the past has responded in creative unexpected ways with new inventions and aspirations." While policy choices such as banking reform a carbon and consumption tax and moving away from GDP as a proxy for well-being are good long-term ideas "we urgently need institutions and populations to begin to prepare...for a world with the same or less each year instead of more."
Worldwatch's State of the World 2015 investigates hidden threats to sustainability including economic political and environmental challenges that are often underreported in the media. For more information on the project visit http://www.worldwatch.org/state-world-2015-confronting-hidden-threats-sustainability-0.
To schedule interviews or to obtain a review copy of State of the World 2015: Confronting Hidden Threats to Sustainability please contact Gaelle Gourmelon at ggourmelon@worldwatch.org.
About the Worldwatch Institute:
Worldwatch is an independent research organization based in Washington D.C. that works on energy resource and environmental issues. The Institute's State of the World report is published annually in more than a dozen languages. For more information visit www.worldwatch.org.
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