(MENAFN- The Journal Of Turkish Weekly) History has a way of always repeating itself, and as the Nepalese government has not fully internalized the lessons from the last conflict that ravaged the country, it is only a matter of time until the grievances of the past collide with issues that will emerge from the recent earthquakes. Nepal is still grieving the losses resultant of its 10-year civil war that was launched by Maoist insurgents and ended in 2006. Given the previous unresolved grievances that have festered for almost a decade, Nepal is at a critical crossroads. While the Nepalese are a resilient people, a formal Truth and Reconciliation Commission has yet to be formed and investigations into deaths and disappearances of civilians during the conflict have yet to offer tangible results. A ratified constitution, meaningful pro-poor reform, and a working model of federalism in Nepal have proved elusive even before the disaster hit. That is why once disaster relief efforts start to decrease there will be a need for the government to refocus its efforts on capacity and peace building. If not, it will only be a matter of time until the situation in Nepal spirals out of control, potentially resulting in sporadic acts of violence between the government and civilians, especially involving the youth wings of political parties who have been known to mobilise quickly at the behest of their political party paymasters.
The government can choose to take this unique and historical opportunity to accept that the trajectory of the past was wrong and to move forward by engaging with the views, feelings, and grievances of the local people. Considering many have already suffered from the aftermath of the conflict, it is important that their voices do not go unheard in this unstable and fragile period. What the government does at this juncture will allow us to see if it truly wants to rebuild and move Nepal forward. Putting more international funds into the hands of the local people could redress the power imbalance inherent in Nepali society. By granting communities quicker access to funds to rebuild and re-establish their homes, livelihoods, and communities, the burden of reconstruction could be shared, as resources would be directly allocated to the appropriate level. If the government is seen to be blocking this avenue for everyday people, it might find itself up against major opposition, widespread protests, and even violence. Unlike previous protests, the magnitude of violence this time around could be significantly higher given that the political elites in Kathmandu have faced universal condemnation for their relative lack of preparedness and proactivity. However, any rapid mobilisation to rebuild the capital exclusively will also spark outcry, particularly because, in Nepal's case, many of the rural regions are already significantly underdeveloped. Ultimately, this will require the government of Nepal to be more conflict sensitive and inclusive by approaching every policy with the principles of 'do no harm' in mind. This will involve working closely with agencies such as the United Nations Development Programme, which has already engaged in extensive work through its Conflict Prevention Programme to assist the Government of Nepal and other key actors including political parties and civil society organizations in reaching consensus on contentious transitional issues and in avoiding the escalation of political, resource, and identity-related tension through dialogue.
Beyond the quake: Where do we go from here?
Ranked 145 out of 187 on the United Nations Human Development Index (HDI), Nepal will need to be rebuilt and put back on track by virtue of strong leadership, decisive policies, and a show of unity from all political leaders. Nepal is already indebted to the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank by some 1.5 billion dollars, while its debt to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) amounts to 54 million dollars; it owes Japan 133 million dollars and China 101 million dollars. Nepal also owes 3.8 billion dollars to various foreign lenders and it spent 217 million dollars repaying its debts in 2013. In the long term, releasing Nepal from this debt would be a step in the right direction and would allow the country's leaders to focus on rebuilding and boosting Nepal's fragile economy. Another solution would be to allow Nepal to receive funds from the IMF's new Catastrophe Containment and Relief Trust (CCR). The CCR was created to assist poor countries recover from severe natural disasters or health crises by providing grants for debt service relief. Some of these funds have already gone into assisting the three West African countries affected by the Ebola crisis. Nepal's scheduled debt repayment of 10 million dollars to the IMF this year, and nearly 13 million dollars in 2016, may not be the best use of that money. If the country's debt burden were to be cancelled, Nepal would be free to focus its efforts on kick-starting its economy and rebuilding its already weak foundations.
Given the thousands of NGOs that have sprung up over the last 20 years in Nepal, attention has now turned to what those organisations that provide essential services to everyday Nepalese people will do. Not just because the earthquake provides a new shift toward short-term humanitarian assistance, but also because there will now be a void that needs to be filled as funds are redirected towards humanitarian support. Previous international funding had focused on peacebuilding, capacity building, and development; yet now that the focus has changed, what will this mean for Nepal and everyday Nepalese people who were already trying to recover from the conflict, and everyday poverty, especially when many people were already left trying to rebuild their families, homes, communities and the country as a whole. Not only did the earthquake set Nepal back 25 years in terms of development and its economy, but it also disturbed the previous decades of efforts aimed at moving the country forward.
The government now also needs to reach the most vulnerable people and invest in infrastructure to prevent a repeat disaster in the future. While the United Nations endeavours to release 15 million dollars from its central emergency-response fund, it is also busy trying to coordinate international efforts to maximize their effectiveness. The coming months are not the time for the government of Nepal to over-reliant on the UN to move the country forward. Decisive and effective leadership is necessary. Finally, even though Nepal is in a disaster relief phase with a focus on delivering drinking water, food, and shelter to survivors, while also working to prevent the outbreak of diseases, as dealing with the immediate aftermath of the disaster is replaced by reconstruction, more and more gaps will become apparent. As less money and resources flow into the country, and as international rescue crews return home, internal tensions and anger towards the government may begin to escalate. The government will be hoping that they get a second chance to provide the leadership that eluded them the first time around and to refocus on building earthquake resilient homes, introduce earthquake safety curricula in schools, invest in healthcare, and engage in a more conflict sensitive approach to development. If the government fails to manage this game-changing political transition, the next disaster might be a widespread relapse into conflict.
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