(MENAFNEditorial)
We favour the sugar sector in Turkey because of the strong growth potential of the country's confectionery industry and our belief that large changes to the country's sugar production quotas are likely to occur in the coming years. Meanwhile we continue to see resilient growth in the livestock sector on the back of continued government support for the sector. In addition we expect g rain dairy and rice production to gradually recover in the 2015/16 season following the drought in 2014.
Key Forecasts
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* Wheat production growth 2013/14 to 2018/19: 5.0% to 18.9mn tonnes. We expect the country to remain a large importer of wheat over the medium term despite reasonably strong domestic production growth.
* Sugar consumption growth to 2019: 14.0% to 2.6mn tonnes. This will be in line with strong growth in the confectionery industry and our belief that production quotas will be reformed.
* 2015 real GDP growth: 3.5% up from 2.9% in 2014.
* Consumer price inflation: 7.2% average in 2015 down from 8.8% average in 2014.
* BMI universe agribusiness market value: 7.5% year-on-year (y-o-y) increase to USD63.3bn in 2015/16 forecast to increase by an annual average of 4.9% between 2015/16 and 2018/19.
Key Developments
Following the drought-affected harvest of 2014/15 we expect y-o-y grain production in 2015/16 to increase considerably based on our assumption of average weather conditions. We do not believe that production will rebound straight away to 2013/14 levels as farmers have limited credit owing to poor earnings in 2014 and low global crop prices will limit the incentive to produce grains in marginal areas.
We forecast sugar production growth of 3.0% y-o-y in 2015/16 and growth will remain strong out to 2018/19 as we believe changes will be made to the country's production quota. In early 2014 the country's Sugar Board prepared a draft regulation to change the current law...
The Turkey Agribusiness Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts for production consumption and trade across core agricultural commodities.
BMI's Turkey Agribusiness Report includes independent commodity price forecasting and analysis for key agricultural outputs an overview of the agribusiness competitive landscape and a discussion of the downstream context of agricultural production in relation to country food consumption forecasts and composite food and beverage trade forecasts.
Key Benefits
* Use BMI's independent industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful planning in dynamic agribusiness markets.
* Apply BMI's medium-term commodity price analysis to assist with budgetary planning and the identification of investment opportunities and potential risks.
* Assess the activities and market position of your competitors partners and clients.
Coverage
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views highlighting recent changes and key risks to the industry outlook.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major strengths weaknesses opportunities and threats within the wider agricultural industry.
BMI Supply & Demand Forecasts
Divided into sections based on various diverse sectors in the agriculture market the chapter provides insight into each market’s agricultural industry centred on sector forecasts to end-2019 for the consumption production and trade of key commodities.
* Consumption Forecasts: Accompanied by a discussion of the main drivers of consumption growth: macroeconomic factors food processing trends price movements and increasingly demand from the non-food sector.
* Production Forecasts: Examine the trends influencing BMI’s production outlook: global demand price increases public and private sector investment and agricultural efficiency improvements.
* Trade Forecasts: Accompanied by a discussion of the factors influencing a country’s trade in agricultural goods including domestic demand global prices and government trade policies.
* BMI’s Forecasts: Accompanied by a risks-to-outlook assessment which examines potential factors that could affect our existing forecast picture and the likelihood of their occurrence.
BMI’s Commodity Price Analysis
Fundamental and technical analysis of the short- and medium-term price outlook for eight agricultural commodities based on globally recognised benchmarks.
Downstream Analysis
Analysis of headline food and drink forecasts including total food consumption per capita food consumption and total sector trade which provide important downstream intelligence for primary agricultural producers.
Featured Analysis
Includes relevant articles from BMI’s daily analysis service. These can include: long-term projections on agricultural imports and exports; our perceptions of the impacts of economic slowdown on key companies and subsectors within the Agribusiness industry in a given country; our analysis of fertilizer production; as well as other relevant analysis of recent news and events.
Competitive Landscape
The reports contain information on prominent companies operating in each market.
Key Commodities Covered By The Agribusiness Market
Reports Include: Grains Dairy Livestock Rice Sugar Palm Oil Edible Oils Coffee Cocoa Cotton Soybean
Please note – not all reports cover all commodities.
Sources
The Agribusiness reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources such as multilateral organisations government departments industry associations chambers and company reports.
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