(MENAFNEditorial)
Core Views
* With the oil sector set for slower growth as global crude prices plunge this will prompt larger net exports deficits and weigh on gross fixed capital formation such that we anticipate slower growth over the next decade than in the last.
* Hydrocarbon sector weakness will also weigh on Colombia's balance of payment position. Indeed faltering oil prices and production will temper investment into Colombia and cool export growth. Meanwhile slower oil production growth combined with increasing pressure to spend on social programmes will feed through to fiscal slippage toward the latter half of our 10-year forecast period. While the country is well positioned to withstand the storm with low external debt and a sizeable stock of foreign reserves the potential for deterioration in the country's macroeconomic buffers will temper investor perception of Colombia's sovereign creditworthiness.
* We expect the government and Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia will reach a peace accord in the coming quarters. However given the splintered nature of the left-wing insurgent group such a deal will only slowly improve the security environment.
Full Report Details at
- http://www.fastmr.com/prod/987515_colombia_country_risk_report.aspx?afid=101
Major Forecast Changes:
We have tempered our optimism on Colombia's growth outlook. Our increasingly cautious view toward the country's oil sector will feed through to the economy in a number of ways:
* We are now forecasting 3.1% average real GDP growth in 2015 and 3.5% in 2016 revised down from 3.9% and 4.0% respectively. This change reflects our expectation that net exports will become a growing burden on headline growth reduced revenues will weigh on government spending and that gross fixed capital formation while benefitting from robust infrastructure expansion will struggle in the face of sluggish oil output growth.
* Colombia will post structurally larger current account shortfalls in the coming years as the hydrocarbon sector falters dragging the trade account further into deficit. After a current...
The Colombia Country Risk Report helps businesses with market assessment strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in Colombia. It is an essential tool for CEOs Chairmen Finance Directors/CFOs Managing Directors Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market.
An influential new analysis of Colombia's economic political and financial prospects through end-2019 just published by award-winning forecasters BMI Research.
Key Uses
* Forecast the pace and stability of Colombia's economic and industry growth through end-2019.
* Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends to facilitate risk mitigation.
* Assess the critical shortcomings of the operating environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability.
* Contextualise Colombia's country risks against regional peers using BMI's country comparative Risk Index system.
* Evaluate external threats to doing business in Colombia including currency volatility the commodity price boom and protectionist policies.
The Colombia Country Risk Report by BMI Research includes four major sections: Economic Outlook Political Outlook Operational Risk and Key Sector Outlook.
Economic Outlook:
How will the Colombia' economic policy-making and performance impact on corporate profitability over 2015-2019?
BMI provides our fully independent 5-year forecasts for Colombia through end-2019 for more than 50 economic and key industry indicators. We evaluate growth and also forecast the impact of economic management.
Economic Outlook Contents
The Colombia Country Risk Report features BMI's forecasts with supporting analysis for 2015 through to end-2019 set against government views and BMI's evaluation of global and regional prospects.
Key Areas Covered:
Data:
* Full 10-year forecasts with data - for key macroeconomic variables including GDP (real growth and per capita) population inflation current account balance and the exchange rate.
* BMI's comprehensive Risk Index system - rates each country worldwide for economic and political risk and rates the business environment within a global and regional context.
Written Analysis:
* Economic Activity - real GDP growth employment inflation consumption (retail sales and confidence).
* Balance of Payments - trade and investment current and capital account.
* Monetary Policy - interest rate trends (bank lending and deposit rates) and inflation (producer price and consumer price).
* Exchange Rate Policy - currency controls foreign investment flows exchange rates and foreign exchange reserves.
* Fiscal Policy - macroeconomic strategy and policies government finance and tax reforms.
* Foreign Direct Investment - approvals inflows and climate.
* External Debt - debt profile (short and long-term plus public and private sector obligations).
* Global Assumptions - forecasts for each year to end-2019 covering: major commodities growth in key regions inflation and interest and exchange rates in the United States Japan China and the eurozone.
Key Benefits
* Rely upon BMI's 100% independent forecast scenarios for Colombia and underlying assumptions - we take no advertising and are privately-owned.
* Exploit the benefits of BMI's comprehensive and reliable macroeconomic database on Colombia sourced and fully maintained by BMI from an extensive network of private sector government and multilateral contacts.
* Gain key insights into the current and future direction of government economic policy which could significantly affect your company's business prospects from BMI's team of analysts and economists.
Political Outlook:
What are the political risks to doing business in Colombia over the next 5-years?
BMI's Colombia country Risk Index evaluates the short- and medium-term threats to political stability.
Political Outlook Contents
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