(MENAFNEditorial)
Core Views
* The April 2 attack by al-Shabaab on Garissa University in north eastern Kenya highlights the country's perilous security outlook which is unlikely to improve over the coming months.
* The politicization of sharp ethnic divisions remains the key threat to Kenya's long-term political stability. Terrorism linked to Kenya's military involvement in Somalia is likely to remain a risk but it does not pose a systemic threat to political stability.
* Despite a tense security situation we believe that a booming consumer story a robust outlook for investment and lower oil prices will see real GDP growth in Kenya expand at around 6.5% annually over the next few years.
* The Kenyan economy will receive an added boost from lower oil prices over the coming quarters. We believe that Kenya - a net fuel importer - stands to benefit more than many of its regional peers.
* Concerns about public spending are rising in Kenya. While we predict that the country will see its fiscal deficit narrow modestly over the coming years we believe that the country's public finances are in less rude health than this trend suggests.
Full Report Details at
- http://www.fastmr.com/prod/987529_kenya_country_risk_report_q3.aspx?afid=101
Major Forecast Changes
* The release of rebased GDP figures has led to substantial revisions to our estimates of Kenya's current account and fiscal deficits when presented as a fraction of GDP. Our general view on economic growth and the development of the Kenyan economy remains largely unchanged.
The Kenya Country Risk Report helps businesses with market assessment strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in Kenya. It is an essential tool for CEOs Chairmen Finance Directors/CFOs Managing Directors Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market.
An influential new analysis of Kenya's economic political and financial prospects through end-2019 just published by award-winning forecasters Business Monitor International (BMI).
Key Uses
* Forecast the pace and stability of Kenya's economic and industry growth through end-2019.
* Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends to facilitate risk mitigation.
* Assess the critical shortcomings of the operating environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability.
* Contextualise Kenya's country risks against regional peers using BMI's country comparative Risk Index system.
* Evaluate external threats to doing business in Kenya including currency volatility the commodity price boom and protectionist policies.
The Kenya Country Risk Report by Business Monitor International (BMI) includes three major sections: Economic Outlook Political Outlook and Operational Risk.
Economic Outlook:
How will the Kenya' economic policy-making and performance impact on corporate profitability over 2015-2019?
BMI provides our fully independent 5-year forecasts for Kenya through end-2019 for more than 50 economic and key industry indicators. We evaluate growth and also forecast the impact of economic management.
Economic Outlook Contents
The Kenya Country Risk Report features BMI's forecasts with supporting analysis for 2015 through to end-2019 set against government views and BMI's evaluation of global and regional prospects.
Key Areas Covered:
Data:
* Full 10-year forecasts with data - for key macroeconomic variables including GDP (real growth and per capita) population inflation current account balance and the exchange rate.
* BMI's comprehensive Risk Index system - rates each country worldwide for economic and political risk and rates the business environment within a global and regional context.
Written Analysis:
* Economic Activity - real GDP growth employment inflation consumption (retail sales and confidence).
* Balance of Payments - trade and investment current and capital account.
* Monetary Policy - interest rate trends (bank lending and deposit rates) and inflation (producer price and consumer price).
* Exchange Rate Policy - currency controls foreign investment flows exchange rates and foreign exchange reserves.
* Fiscal Policy - macroeconomic strategy and policies government finance and tax reforms.
* Foreign Direct Investment - approvals inflows and climate.
* External Debt - debt profile (short and long-term plus public and private sector obligations).
* Global Assumptions - forecasts for each year to end-2019 covering: major commodities growth in key regions inflation and interest and exchange rates in the United States Japan China and the eurozone.
Key Benefits
* Rely upon BMI's 100% independent forecast scenarios for Kenya and underlying assumptions - we take no advertising and are privately-owned.
* Exploit the benefits of BMI's comprehensive and reliable macroeconomic database on Kenya sourced and fully maintained by BMI from an extensive network of private sector government and multilateral contacts.
* Gain key insights into the current and future direction of government economic policy which could significantly affect your company's business prospects from BMI's team of analysts and economists.
Political Outlook:
What are the political risks to doing business in Kenya over the next 5-years?
BMI's Kenya country Risk Index evaluates the short- and medium-term threats to political stability.
Political Outlook Contents
* SWOT Analysis for the Kenya Market - Political Strengths Weaknesses Opportunities and Threats facing Kenya.
* Political Stability and Risk Assessment - BMI's Risk Index assesses explicit short- and long-term risks to political stability; latest positioning and trends for Kenya's risk are compared with regional and global averages.
* Current Administration and Policy-making BMI assesses the threats to the continuity of economic policy and likely changes to the business operating environment.
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