(MENAFNEditorial)
Core Views
* Prime Minister Robert Fico's failed bid for the presidency in March 2014 is a sign of growing voter wariness of single-party rule and mainstream political parties while recent corruption scandals have reinforced this trend. General elections in 2016 are unlikely to give the ruling party another outright parliamentary majority but the fragmented nature of the opposition suggests it will remain the dominant political force for some time.
* Although the government will have to maintain a relatively tight fiscal stance in light of looming constitutional debt brakes we believe Slovakia is on a sustainable fiscal trajectory with few risks to its solid sovereign credit profile.
* The short-term economic outlook has brightened as export growth led growth of the previous years has translated to a visible pick-up in domestic demand. We expect domestic demand growth to remain robust driving growth in the coming years.
* The current account will remain in surplus over the medium term boosted by falling oil prices and an accelerating eurozone recovery.
Full Report Details at
- http://www.fastmr.com/prod/987537_slovakia_country_risk_report.aspx?afid=101
Major Forecast Changes
* We have revised up our real GDP growth forecasts in 2015 and 2016 from 2.8% and 3.2% to 3.0% and 3.3% respectively.
Risks To Outlook
* The risks to our above consensus growth forecast are weighted to the downside and largely based on uncertainty over the sustainability of the regional economy. Slovakia's economy is vulnerable to any shifts in external demand and a deceleration in the German economy or escalation of the Ukrainian crisis could weigh on the short-term outlook.
The Slovakia Country Risk Report helps businesses with market assessment strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in Slovakia. It is an essential tool for CEOs Chairmen Finance Directors/CFOs Managing Directors Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market.
An influential new analysis of Slovakia's economic political and financial prospects through end-2019 just published by award-winning forecasters BMI Research.
Key Uses
* Forecast the pace and stability of Slovakia's economic and industry growth through end-2019.
* Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends to facilitate risk mitigation.
* Assess the critical shortcomings of the operating environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability.
* Contextualise Slovakia's country risks against regional peers using BMI's country comparative Risk Index system.
* Evaluate external threats to doing business in Slovakia including currency volatility the commodity price boom and protectionist policies.
The Slovakia Country Risk Report by BMI Research includes four major sections: Economic Outlook Political Outlook Operational Risk and Key Sector Outlook.
Economic Outlook:
How will the Slovakia' economic policy-making and performance impact on corporate profitability over 2015-2019?
BMI provides our fully independent 5-year forecasts for Slovakia through end-2019 for more than 50 economic and key industry indicators. We evaluate growth and also forecast the impact of economic management.
Economic Outlook Contents
The Slovakia Country Risk Report features BMI's forecasts with supporting analysis for 2015 through to end-2019 set against government views and BMI's evaluation of global and regional prospects.
Key Areas Covered:
Data:
* Full 10-year forecasts with data - for key macroeconomic variables including GDP (real growth and per capita) population inflation current account balance and the exchange rate.
* BMI's comprehensive Risk Index system - rates each country worldwide for economic and political risk and rates the business environment within a global and regional context.
Written Analysis:
* Economic Activity - real GDP growth employment inflation consumption (retail sales and confidence).
* Balance of Payments - trade and investment current and capital account.
* Monetary Policy - interest rate trends (bank lending and deposit rates) and inflation (producer price and consumer price).
* Exchange Rate Policy - currency controls foreign investment flows exchange rates and foreign exchange reserves.
* Fiscal Policy - macroeconomic strategy and policies government finance and tax reforms.
* Foreign Direct Investment - approvals inflows and climate.
* External Debt - debt profile (short and long-term plus public and private sector obligations).
* Global Assumptions - forecasts for each year to end-2019 covering: major commodities growth in key regions inflation and interest and exchange rates in the United States Japan China and the eurozone.
Key Benefits
* Rely upon BMI's 100% independent forecast scenarios for Slovakia and underlying assumptions - we take no advertising and are privately-owned.
* Exploit the benefits of BMI's comprehensive and reliable macroeconomic database on Slovakia sourced and fully maintained by BMI from an extensive network of private sector government and multilateral contacts.
* Gain key insights into the current and future direction of government economic policy which could significantly affect your company's business prospects from BMI's team of analysts and economists.
Political Outlook:
What are the political risks to doing business in Slovakia over the next 5-years?
BMI's Slovakia country Risk Index evaluates the short- and medium-term threats to political stability.
Political Outlook Contents
* SWOT Analysis for the Slovakia Market - Political Strengths Weaknesses Opportunities and Threats facing Slovakia.
* Political Stability and Risk Assessment - BMI's Risk Index assesses explicit short- and long-term risks to political stability; latest positioning and trends for Slovakia's risk are compared with regional and global averages.
About Fast Market Research
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For more information about these or related research reports please visit our website at http://www.fastmr.com or call us at 1.800.844.8156 (1.413.485.7001 Int'l)
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