Market Report "Croatia Country Risk Report Q3 2015" published

(MENAFNEditorial)

Core Views

 *  Croatia's Economy will remain in the doldrums in 2015 with only a marginal return to positive growth expected in 2015.
 *  Competitiveness issues are at the root of Croatia's problems due to high labour costs an inflexible labour market and cumbersome bureaucracy.
 *  Household spending will continue to struggle amidst high unemployment low wage growth and battered consumer optimism.
 *  The central bank's unwillingness to tolerate currency deprecation suggests a painful internal devaluation may be the only way for Croatia to boost price competitiveness over the coming years.
 *  Croatia's perilous fiscal dynamics means the country is likely to require some form of IMF aid package over the next few years.
 *  The ruling Kukuriku coalition looks like it will struggle to remain in power beyond elections which must be held no later than February 2016.

 Major Forecast Changes 

 *  We have slightly upgraded our forecasts for real GDP to expand by 0.3% in 2015 from 0.1% previously. The upgrade has little to do with an improving structural economic backdrop. Instead it reflects the potential impacts of low global oil prices on domestic demand and reducing the import bill.
 *  We have revised up our current account forecasts to 0.6% of GDP in 2015 and 0.2% in 2016 from 0.4% and -0.1% previously. This mainly reflects a collapse in global oil prices reducing the import bill. It also takes into account the likelihood of these low oil prices stimulating domestic demand in the country's main eurozone trading partners boosting exports slightly.

Full Report Details at
 - http://www.fastmr.com/prod/987522_croatia_country_risk_report.aspx?afid=101

 Key Risks To Outlook

 *  Croatia could easily remain in negative real GDP growth territory for a seventh consecutive year in 2015.
 *  This could result from any slight softening of external demand from the country's main eurozone trading partners or if the government cuts spending too aggressively as it attempts to comply with EU budget deficit targets.

The Croatia Country Risk Report helps businesses with market assessment strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in Croatia. It is an essential tool for CEOs Chairmen Finance Directors/CFOs Managing Directors Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market.

An influential new analysis of Croatia's economic political and financial prospects through end-2019 just published by award-winning forecasters BMI Research.

Key Uses

 * Forecast the pace and stability of Croatia's economic and industry growth through end-2019.
 * Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends to facilitate risk mitigation.
 * Assess the critical shortcomings of the operating environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability.
 * Contextualise Croatia's country risks against regional peers using BMI's country comparative Risk Index system.
 * Evaluate external threats to doing business in Croatia including currency volatility the commodity price boom and protectionist policies.

The Croatia Country Risk Report by BMI Research includes four major sections: Economic Outlook Political Outlook Operational Risk and Key Sector Outlook.

Economic Outlook:

 How will the Croatia' economic policy-making and performance impact on corporate profitability over 2015-2019? 

BMI provides our fully independent 5-year forecasts for Croatia through end-2019 for more than 50 economic and key industry indicators. We evaluate growth and also forecast the impact of economic management.

Economic Outlook Contents

The Croatia Country Risk Report features BMI's forecasts with supporting analysis for 2015 through to end-2019 set against government views and BMI's evaluation of global and regional prospects.

Key Areas Covered:

Data:

 * Full 10-year forecasts with data - for key macroeconomic variables including GDP (real growth and per capita) population inflation current account balance and the exchange rate.
 * BMI's comprehensive Risk Index system - rates each country worldwide for economic and political risk and rates the business environment within a global and regional context.

Written Analysis:

 * Economic Activity - real GDP growth employment inflation consumption (retail sales and confidence).
 * Balance of Payments - trade and investment current and capital account.
 * Monetary Policy - interest rate trends (bank lending and deposit rates) and inflation (producer price and consumer price).
 * Exchange Rate Policy - currency controls foreign investment flows exchange rates and foreign exchange reserves.
 * Fiscal Policy - macroeconomic strategy and policies government finance and tax reforms.
 * Foreign Direct Investment - approvals inflows and climate.
 * External Debt - debt profile (short and long-term plus public and private sector obligations).
 * Global Assumptions - forecasts for each year to end-2019 covering: major commodities growth in key regions inflation and interest and exchange rates in the United States Japan China and the eurozone.

Key Benefits

 * Rely upon BMI's 100% independent forecast scenarios for Croatia and underlying assumptions - we take no advertising and are privately-owned.
 * Exploit the benefits of BMI's comprehensive and reliable macroeconomic database on Croatia sourced and fully maintained by BMI from an extensive network of private sector government and multilateral contacts.
 * Gain key insights into the current and future direction of government economic policy which could significantly affect your company's business prospects from BMI's team of analysts and economists.

Political Outlook:

What are the political risks to doing business in Croatia over the next 5-years? 

BMI's Croatia country Risk Index evaluates the short- and medium-term threats to political stability.

Political Outlook Contents

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