Week Ahead: A hung parliament is the fear


(MENAFN- ProactiveInvestors) The big event this week is obviously Thursday's General Election but there is no shortage of scheduled big company announcements either.

The opinion polls suggest the two main parties are still neck and neck in terms of the popular vote though students of psephology will know that often does not translate into being neck and neck in terms of the seats they will win.

A year ago it looked like UKIP would be the wild card but now it seems more likely to be the Scottish Nationalist Party (SNP) will be the party making a surge at the expense of Labour.

The consensus seems to be however that SNP MPs will just end up as surrogate Labour ones albeit more socialist in their tendencies and that if there is any horse dealing to be done in a hung parliament then the SNP will throw its lot in with Labour.

A formal coalition might not sit well with Labour however and it may be that the UK will end up with a minority government and another General Election later this year.

A hung parliament or a minority government is unlikely to be viewed as a good results for investors in the UK stock market while a Labour victory could spark a stampede for the exits by shareholders of utility companies and possibly banks as well.

Talking of banks HSBC issues a trading update on Tuesday following in the footsteps of its sector peers most of which reported last week.

Speculation continues to abound that the emerging markets-focused group will shift its headquarters away from London perhaps hiving off its UK high street banking interests while doing so - a move that could see the return of the Midland Bank to the stock exchange - but the company has already said that the review into whether it should up sticks will take some and it is unlikely anything new will be revealed on this score on Tuesday.

Investec said it expects HSBC to underwhelm when it reports.

Wednesday sees drugs giant GlaxoSmithKline release first quarter numbers. Sheridan Admans of the Share Centre reckons investors may still expect lingering issues with the US primary care market and soft European sales.

"However we expect good performances with regards to emerging market sales Japan sales and HIV drugs" Admans said. 

"The group is likely to report adverse currency movements; especially as the euro weakens against sterling which could impact sales. Investors will also look out for updates on the progress with the R&D pipeline regulatory approvals and the effectiveness of its cost cutting programme" he added.

From healthcare to something that isn't; Imperial Tobacco which issues half-year results on Wednesday.

Panmure Gordon is predicting a year-on-year increase in sales of three or four per-cent on a constant currency basis with Germany putting in a good stint.

"We would note that in the comparable period volumes were negatively impacted by customer de-stocking and therefore this is not a guide to ‘underlying’ performance since de-stocking reduced volumes by 4% in H1’14 (though these volumes are not expected to come back). Therefore Mgt might well state that underlying volumes are down 3% (Q1 -4%) and net revenues are only up 1-2% but these figures are only notional and we believe demonstrating positive sales growth (at constant fx) is the important feature of the results" Panmure Gordon said. 

"Currency translation is expected to be a c3.5% headwind in the first half."

The broker has forecast adjusted earning per share of 92.7p up 3.5% on last year despite currency headwinds. It has pencilled in an interim dividend of 42.7p up 10% on last year.

Significant announcements expected 

Monday

London Stock Exchange closed.

Economic: Asia - Chinese HSBC manufacturing PMI. EU - Markit manufacturing PMI. US - Factory orders

 

Tuesday

Trading statement: Greene King (LON:GNK) HSBC Holdings (LON:HSBA)

Economic: EU - Economic growth forecasts; Producer prices. US - Trade figures; ISM non-manufacturing PMI.

 

Wednesday

Final: Sainsbury (J) (LON:SBRY)

Interim: GlaxoSmithKline (LON:GSK) Imperial Tobacco Group (LON:IMT) Inmarsat (LON:ISAT) Sage Group (The) (LON:SGE)

Trading statement: Carillion (LON:CLLN) CRH (LON:CRH) Direct Line Insurance Group (LON:DLG) GKN (LON:GKN) Intu Properties (LON:INTU) Legal & General Group (LON:LGEN) National Express Group (LON:NEX) PPHE Hotel Group (LON:PPH) Smith (LON:DS) (LON:SMDS) Wetherspoon (J D) (LON:JDW)

Economic: UK - Halifax house price index; Markit services PMI. EU - Markit services PMI; Markit PMI composite; Retail sales. US - MBA mortgage applications; ADP employment change.

 

Thursday

Interim: BT Group (LON:BT.A) Millennium & Copthorne Hotels (LON:MLC) Randgold Resources (LON:RRS)

Trading statement: Aviva (LON:AV.) Derwent London (LON:DLN) easyJet (LON:EZJ) esure Group (LON:ESUR) IMI (LON:IMI) Kennedy Wilson Europe Real Estate (LON:KWE) Morrison (Wm) Supermarkets (LON:MRW) Provident Financial (LON:PFG) RSA Insurance Group (LON:RSA) SABMiller (LON:SAB) Telecity Group (LON:TCY) Trinity Mirror (LON:TNI)

The following widely held shares are trading in ex-dividend form: Morrisons Trinity Mirror Rightmove Playtech London Stock Exchange Admiral Group AG Barr G4S Acacia Mining

Economic: UK - General election. US - Weekly jobless claims; Consumer credit.

 

Friday

 

Interim: BG Group (LON:BG.)

Trading statement: InterContinental Hotels Group (LON:IHG) Man Group (LON:EMG) Pendragon (LON:PDG) Rolls-Royce Group (LON:RR.)

 

Economic: Asia - Chinese trade figures. UK - Trade figures. US - Unemployment rate; Non-farm payrolls.


ProactiveInvestors - UK

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