(MENAFNEditorial)
Against a backdrop of regional economic instability we see moderate scope for short-term improvements to the business environment in Uzbekistan which poses downside risks to the country ' s pharmaceutical sector growth forecasts. However Uzbekistan ' s relatively high economic growth rates although decelerating will continue to allow the government to pursue policies aimed at economic diversification and modernisation including the promotion of pharmaceutical manufacturing through private sector strengthening joint ventures and incentives to attract foreign investment and technology transfer .
Headline Expenditure Projections
* Pharmaceuticals: UZS2111.9bn (USD915mn) in 2014 to UZS2611.9bn (USD1.0bn) in 2015; 23.7% in local currency terms and 10.4% in US dollar terms. Forecast revised upwards from last quarter.
* Healthcare: UZS8109.0bn (USD3.5bn) in 2014 to UZS9544.2bn (USD3.7bn) in 2015; 17.7% in local currency terms and 5.1% in US dollar terms. Forecast revised downwards from last quarter .
Full Report Details at
- http://www.fastmr.com/prod/980296_uzbekistan_pharmaceuticals_healthcare_report_q2.aspx?afid=101
Risk/Reward Index: In Q215 we have revised upwards Uzbekistan's Pharmaceuticals RRI score to 37.0 from 34.6 in the previous quarter out of the maximum 100 points. However according to our RRI matrix Uzbekistan remains the least attractive market to pharmaceutical investors in the Central and Eastern Europe region. The Uzbek market score upgrade was driven by higher sector value growth indices. Uzbekistan's overall score is supported by a robust pharmaceutical market expansion (sector value growth score 8.4 against the regional average of 4.6) and population growth (scoring 3.0 versus the regional average of 1.3) but dragged down by a moderate market size (market expenditure score 4.0 against the regional average of 8.3) and low spending level (spending per capita score 1.2 against the regional average of 5.6).
Key Trends And Developments
February 2015
* The US Agency for International Development (USAID) launched a new Tuberculosis...
The Uzbekistan Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription OTC patented drugs and generics market segments.
BMI's Uzbekistan Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals strategists company executives investors analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Uzbekistan pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.
Key Benefits
* Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Uzbekistan to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Uzbekistani pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
* Target business opportunities and risks in the Uzbekistani pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends regulatory changes and major deals projects and investments in Uzbekistan.
* Assess the activities strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.
Coverage
BMI Industry ViewAn at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments key forecast indicators and major corporate developments covering the prescription OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis and taken together with BMI’s political economic and business environment SWOTs it gives a complete overview of market climate.
BMI Industry Forecast ScenarioIndustry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators supported by explicit assumptions plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
* Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn) healthcare expenditure (% of GDP) healthcare expenditure per capita (USD) hospital beds doctors and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
* Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn % of GDP and per capita (USD).
* Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
* Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn) generic sales (% of total sales).
* OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
* Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP % real GDP growth % private consumption growth % industrial output growth % consumer price index % GDP price deflator exports imports trade balance current account balance foreign direct investment exchange rate against USD government expenditure and external debt.
BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward IndexBMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors with each position explained.
Market SummaryA snapshot of key market characteristics including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments growth drivers leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape
Industry DevelopmentsA focus on government healthcare reforms epidemiological trends mergers and acquisitions product launches market entries FDI activity R&D biotechnology clinical trials and supply chain issues.
Regulatory RegimeDetails of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services pricing and reimbursements intellectual property taxation and advertising as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.
Competitive LandscapeThe competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector as well as the OTC generics and distribution sub-sectors.
Company Profiles*
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