(MENAFNEditorial)
Hostility with Russia a second consecutive year of recession and a poor grain harvest are all risks to the downside that will make 2015 a difficult year for Ukraine's shipping sector. BMI is predicting declines in throughput at Ukraine's main ports of Odessa and Illichivsk.
From a total tonnage standpoint the projected decline in grain production will be a major driver in the throughput decline at both ports with the two facilities both participating in the country's grain export supply chain. The ports will also witness a declining role in the coal export supply chain. Ukraine's coal supply chains and to some extent mining activities which mostly take place in the east of the country have been negatively impacted by the fighting between Ukrainian forces and separatist groups supported by Russia.
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Such is the decline in coal deliveries a key fuel source for Ukraine's power sector that the country is now having to import from South Africa. The first delivery of imported coal into Ukraine happened in Q4 2014 and the port of Odessa is projected to play a greater role in this supply chain.
Container throughput in 2015 will be negatively impacted by a projected second year of recession in Ukraine with BMI forecasting a contraction of 5.2% on top of the estimated 5.3% decline in 2014. This is specifically bad news for the container terminal operator HPC Ukraina at the port of Odessa which has just finished an expansion plan at the port to attract greater volumes of traffic. This increase in traffic is unlikely to materialise in at least the medium-term with BMI forecasting Ukraine's economy to grow by just 0.2% between 2015-2019. Meanwhile at the port of Illichivsk there is no update on the future of container operations of Ukrtranscontainer. The firm's parent company is Russian but there is no mention of its operations on the parent company website.
Headline Industry Data
* 2015 port of Odessa tonnage throughput forecast to decline by 5.0% to 24.1mn...
The Ukraine Shipping Report has been researched at source and features latest-available data and BMI Research's independent forecasting critically analysing international transport of dry bulk and containers. The report evaluates the global commodities and trade backdrop alongside in-depth country-specific analysis of trade prospects. The report also contains company profiles covering leading multinational and national shipping companies and analysis of latest industry news trends and regulatory developments in Ukraine.
BMI's Ukraine Shipping Report provides industry professionals and strategists sector analysts business investors trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the shipping industry in Ukraine.
Key Benefits
* Benchmark BMI's independent shipping industry forecasts for Ukraine to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Ukrainian shipping market.
* Target business opportunities and risks in Ukraine through our reviews of latest industry trends regulatory changes and major deals projects and investments.
* Exploit the latest competitive intelligence and company SWOTS on your competitors and peers including multinational and national companies.
Coverage
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts views and trend analysis covering shipping major investments and projects and significant multinational and national company developments.
SWOT Analysis
SWOT (Strengths Weaknesses Opportunities and Threats) analysis of the state's shipping sector which carefully evaluates the short- and medium-term issues facing the industry.
Market Overview
Analysis of the capacity terminals and planned development of the major ports in each country including data on throughput and total tonnage.
Industry Forecast Scenario
Historic data series (2008-2012) and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and macroeconomic indicators (see list below) supported by explicit assumptions plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast including:
Major port freight throughput (tonnes/teu); overall freight throughput (teu); total imports (US$bn) and exports (US$bn).
Company Profiles
Company profiles include business activities leading products and services company strategy trends and developments and economic performance analysis.
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