(MENAFNEditorial)
The ongoing crisis in Ukraine will ensure support for President Alexander Lukashenko remains robust in the run up to the 2015 presidential election. Opinion polls indicate voters prefer the stability engendered by the regime to the uncertainty following the ousting of the president and we believe the government will continue to divide its focus between closer Russian and EU relations.
* The Belarusian economy will remain in recession until 2016 as the fallout from Russia's economic crisis spreads. Stagnant real wage growth driven by high inflation will cap consumer spending while collapsing demand from Russia and Ukraine will exacerbate Belarus' external imbalances and ensure that net exports remain a drag on growth.
Full Report Details at
- http://www.fastmr.com/prod/974368_belarus_country_risk_report_q2_2015.aspx?afid=101
* Consumer price inflation to remain high in Belarus over the next two years as the ruble's continued depreciation stokes imported inflationary pressures though tight monetary policy and slow real wage growth will prevent a return to the hyperinflation witnessed in 2012.
Major Forecast Changes
* We have revised down our real GDP growth forecast for Belarus to -3.1% in 2015 from 1.0% growth previously and to 0.6% growth in 2016 down from 1.5% previously due to the worsening outlook for Russia - Belarus' main export and investment partner.
Key Risks To Outlook
* In the event that Belarus' political opposition groups can agree on a single candidate for the 2015 presidential election it may pose more of a challenge to Lukashenko than we currently expect. Opinion polls indicate that in the event a single opposition candidate were to run the individual would likely receive more support than Lukashenko. Nevertheless the outcome of the election will likely see a strong margin of victory for Lukashenko but an organised opposition with a single leader and a perceived grievance towards the government could see widespread protest movements emerge destabilising the regime.
* In terms of the currency the most pressing risk to our ruble...
The Belarus Country Risk Report helps businesses with market assessment strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in Belarus. It is an essential tool for CEOs Chairmen Finance Directors/CFOs Managing Directors Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market.
An influential new analysis of Belarus's economic political and financial prospects through end-2019 just published by award-winning forecasters Business Monitor International (BMI).
Key Uses
* Forecast the pace and stability of Belarus's economic and industry growth through end-2019.
* Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends to facilitate risk mitigation.
* Assess the critical shortcomings of the operating environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability.
* Contextualise Belarus's country risks against regional peers using BMI's country comparative Risk Index system.
* Evaluate external threats to doing business in Belarus including currency volatility the commodity price boom and protectionist policies.
The Belarus Country Risk Report by Business Monitor International (BMI) includes three major sections:Economic OutlookPolitical OutlookandOperational Risk.
Economic Outlook:
How will the Belarus' economic policy-making and performance impact on corporate profitability over 2015-2019?
BMI provides our fully independent 5-year forecasts for Belarus through end-2019 for more than 50 economic and key industry indicators. We evaluate growth and also forecast the impact of economic management.
Economic Outlook Contents
The Belarus Country Risk Report features BMI's forecasts with supporting analysis for 2015 through to end-2019 set against government views and BMI's evaluation of global and regional prospects.
Key Areas Covered:
Data:
* Full 10-year forecasts with data - for key macroeconomic variables including GDP (real growth and per capita) population inflation current account balance and the exchange rate.
* BMI's comprehensive Risk Index system - rates each country worldwide for economic and political risk and rates the business environment within a global and regional context.
Written Analysis:
* Economic Activity - real GDP growth employment inflation consumption (retail sales and confidence).
* Balance of Payments - trade and investment current and capital account.
* Monetary Policy - interest rate trends (bank lending and deposit rates) and inflation (producer price and consumer price).
* Exchange Rate Policy - currency controls foreign investment flows exchange rates and foreign exchange reserves.
* Fiscal Policy - macroeconomic strategy and policies government finance and tax reforms.
* Foreign Direct Investment - approvals inflows and climate.
* External Debt - debt profile (short and long-term plus public and private sector obligations).
* Global Assumptions - forecasts for each year to end-2019 covering: major commodities growth in key regions inflation and interest and exchange rates in the United States Japan China and the eurozone.
Key Benefits
* Rely upon BMI's 100% independent forecast scenarios for Belarus and underlying assumptions - we take no advertising and are privately-owned.
* Exploit the benefits of BMI's comprehensive and reliable macroeconomic database on Belarus sourced and fully maintained by BMI from an extensive network of private sector government and multilateral contacts.
* Gain key insights into the current and future direction of government economic policy which could significantly affect your company's business prospects from BMI's team of analysts and economists.
Political Outlook:
What are the political risks to doing business in Belarus over the next 5-years?
BMI's Belarus country Risk Index evaluates the short- and medium-term threats to political stability.
Political Outlook Contents
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