(MENAFNEditorial)
Core Views:
* Ukraine's economy is headed for a major recession which it is unlikely to emerge from until 2016. Ongoing fighting between the Ukrainian army and pro-Russia forces in the east and the persistent threat of a military invasion by Russia raises huge challenges to our ability to forecast the economic outlook over the coming quarters to any meaningful degree of confidence.
* EU/IMF financing package will require reforms including: FX liberalisation (although this is likely to be implemented in stages) partial removal of gas subsidies and potentially pension reform.
* Despite the new IMF package Ukraine's fiscal position remains poor and is likely to deteriorate over the coming quarters. FX shocks extended fighting and the growing risk of a banking sector bailout all pose significant challenges to the sovereign debt profile. Ultimately we believe that Ukraine's debt load is likely to become unsustainable necessitating a debt restructuring further down the line.
* Putin will be happy with Crimea for now and will not push military intervention into North East of Ukraine. Ethnic divisions in NE Ukraine not nearly as clear cut as Crimea and it would benefit Putin to retain a large ethnic Russian influence in mainland Ukraine (enabling him to maintain a direct political stake in Ukrainian affairs).
Full Report Details at
- http://www.fastmr.com/prod/974393_ukraine_country_risk_report_q2_2015.aspx?afid=101
Major Forecast Changes:
* We have revised up our 2014 real GDP estimate slightly although we emphasize this is because we have adjusted our GDP forecasts to exclude Crimea in order to keep our statistics consistent with the national statistical agency's decision. The deeper than expected devaluation will also reduce imports more than we initially forecast reducing the drag from weaker exports. We estimate real GDP will contract by 5.3% in 2014 and forecast a further contraction of 5.2% in 2015.
Key Risks To Outlook:
* A sharper than expected devaluation could trigger major shockwaves through the domestic economy particularly within the financial...
The Ukraine Country Risk Report helps businesses with market assessment strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in Ukraine. It is an essential tool for CEOs Chairmen Finance Directors/CFOs Managing Directors Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market.
An influential new analysis of Ukraine's economic political and financial prospects through end-2019 just published by award-winning forecasters Business Monitor International (BMI).
Key Uses
* Forecast the pace and stability of Ukraine's economic and industry growth through end-2019.
* Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends to facilitate risk mitigation.
* Assess the critical shortcomings of the operating environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability.
* Contextualise Ukraine's country risks against regional peers using BMI's country comparative Risk Index system.
* Evaluate external threats to doing business in Ukraine including currency volatility the commodity price boom and protectionist policies.
The Ukraine Country Risk Report by Business Monitor International (BMI) includes four major sections:Economic OutlookPolitical OutlookOperational RiskandKey Sector Outlook.
Economic Outlook:
How will the Ukraine' economic policy-making and performance impact on corporate profitability over 2015-2019?
BMI provides our fully independent 5-year forecasts for Ukraine through end-2019 for more than 50 economic and key industry indicators. We evaluate growth and also forecast the impact of economic management.
Economic Outlook Contents
The Ukraine Country Risk Report features BMI's forecasts with supporting analysis for 2015 through to end-2019 set against government views and BMI's evaluation of global and regional prospects.
Key Areas Covered:
Data:
* Full 10-year forecasts with data - for key macroeconomic variables including GDP (real growth and per capita) population inflation current account balance and the exchange rate.
* BMI's comprehensive Risk Index system - rates each country worldwide for economic and political risk and rates the business environment within a global and regional context.
Written Analysis:
* Economic Activity - real GDP growth employment inflation consumption (retail sales and confidence).
* Balance of Payments - trade and investment current and capital account.
* Monetary Policy - interest rate trends (bank lending and deposit rates) and inflation (producer price and consumer price).
* Exchange Rate Policy - currency controls foreign investment flows exchange rates and foreign exchange reserves.
* Fiscal Policy - macroeconomic strategy and policies government finance and tax reforms.
* Foreign Direct Investment - approvals inflows and climate.
* External Debt - debt profile (short and long-term plus public and private sector obligations).
* Global Assumptions - forecasts for each year to end-2019 covering: major commodities growth in key regions inflation and interest and exchange rates in the United States Japan China and the eurozone.
Key Benefits
* Rely upon BMI's 100% independent forecast scenarios for Ukraine and underlying assumptions - we take no advertising and are privately-owned.
* Exploit the benefits of BMI's comprehensive and reliable macroeconomic database on Ukraine sourced and fully maintained by BMI from an extensive network of private sector government and multilateral contacts.
* Gain key insights into the current and future direction of government economic policy which could significantly affect your company's business prospects from BMI's team of analysts and economists.
Political Outlook:
What are the political risks to doing business in Ukraine over the next 5-years?
BMI's Ukraine country Risk Index evaluates the short- and medium-term threats to political stability.
Political Outlook Contents
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