(MENAFN- Gulf Times) Facing re-election and $4 a gallon gasoline, President Barack Obama sounded like an enthusiastic supporter of the Keystone XL pipeline at a March 2012 campaign rally.
"I'm directing my administration to cut through the red tape, break through the bureaucratic hurdles, and make this project a priority," he said in a speech in Cushing, Oklahoma, referring to a southern leg of the long-delayed project.
Those days are gone. Now when Obama describes the next proposed Keystone segment he says it will only create about 300 jobs. He calls the Calgary-based pipeline builder TransCanada Corp a "foreign company" and says the oil won't benefit American motorists.
And last week, he even said the process of extracting crude from the Alberta oil sands is "extraordinarily dirty."
After years of review, Obama may be finally nearing a decision on the $8bn project. The State Department has restarted a review it had paused while a challenge to the pipeline's route worked its way through Nebraska's high court. And by vetoing Republican-backed legislation last month to force approval, Obama preserved for himself the final say.
While the White House insists Obama hasn't made up his mind, some analysts say his rhetorical shift suggests otherwise.
"Our view is that it's pretty crystal clear it's not going to be approved under this administration," said Patrick Kenny, an analyst at National Bank Financial in Calgary.
TransCanada first applied to build Keystone XL in September 2008 to link Canada's abundant crude with a cluster of refineries along the shores of the Gulf of Mexico After objections to its original proposal, the company split the project in two and, with Obama's support, built the lower section within the US that didn't need a presidential permit.
Backers, including congressional Republicans, say finishing the Alberta-to-Nebraska segment would create thousands of jobs and improve US energy security by strengthening ties to a key ally in Canada. For months Obama has been knocking down the case for it, while saying he was awaiting the outcome of the State Department report before making up his mind.
During a White House press conference in December, Obama said: "There's been this tendency to really hype this thing as some magic formula and - to what ails the US economy. And it's hard to see on paper where exactly they're getting that information from."
He's even denigrated the project overseas.
"Understand what this project is: It is providing the ability of Canada to pump their oil, send it through our land down to the Gulf where it will be sold everywhere else," Obama said during a visit to Myanmar in November.
In the South Carolina address last week, Obama called the process for extracting oil in Alberta extraordinary dirty and said Keystone wouldn't provide many permanent jobs.
For pipeline opponents, his comments are being taken as confirmation that their rallies and protests have brought the president around to their way of thinking.
"It would be extraordinarily difficult for him to approve Keystone after all these things he's said, from an integrity standpoint," said Elijah Zarlin, a senior campaigner for Credo Action, an advocacy group that opposes Keystone. Environmentalists expect Obama to reject the project, he said.
Zarlin worked for Obama during his 2008 campaign for president.
Burdett Loomis, a political science professor at the University of Kansas in Lawrence, said Obama's more critical comments on Keystone fall in line with a more aggressive political posture in general.
He's appeared more willing to challenge Republicans on issues like immigration policy or environmental rules regarding power plants.
The letter on March 9 warning Iran that any nuclear deal could be struck down after Obama leaves office, signed by 47 Republican senators and blasted by the White House, probably means Obama is even less likely to yield on a party priority like Keystone, Loomis said.
"Without question, it's become even more personal," Loomis said in an e-mail.
Bruce Oppenheimer, a political science professor at Vanderbilt University in Nashville who studies energy issues, said the policy and political dynamics surrounding Keystone have changed since 2012.
Falling gasoline prices and increasing domestic supply of crude mean Americans are less likely to care much one way or the other on the outcome, he said.
Meanwhile, Obama is freed from having to consider the electoral implications of his decision.
"Everybody thinks this president is a lame duck, but lame ducks have flexibility you don't have when you're running for re-election," Oppenheimer said in a phone interview.
Mark Cooper, a spokesman for TransCanada, defended the project, saying the carbon footprint of the oil it would carry is similar to heavy crudes in use by the US for years and that come from nations not as friendly as Canada, like Venezuela.
"Instead of sending billions of dollars overseas to regimes that are fundamentally opposed to American values, the oil that is needed can be sourced right here in North America," Cooper said in an e-mail.
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