(MENAFNEditorial)
Core Views:
* Bulgaria's debt and deficit will continue to increase over the coming years having grown considerably in 2014 due to a bank bailout and weak revenue growth. Nevertheless the country will remain on a sustainable fiscal trajectory due in part to its exceptionally low public load.
* Bulgaria's economic recovery will be weak in 2015 as domestic demand remains elusive. Deflation and political uncertainty compound already weak confidence levels among businesses and mean that a sharp bounce back for the economy is unlikely.
* We are forecasting Bulgaria's current account to return to deficit in 2015 on account of the economy's exposure to the eurozone as both an export market and remittance origination point.
Full Report Details at
- http://www.fastmr.com/prod/960624_bulgaria_country_risk_report_q2_2015.aspx?afid=101
Major Forecast Changes:
* We have revised down our 2015 and 2016 headline real GDP growth forecasts to 0.8% and 1.1% from 1.9% and 2.4% respectively to reflect a chronic lack of fixed investment stagnant wage growth and ongoing private sector deleveraging.
* We have downgraded our 2014 inflation forecasts for Bulgaria to reflect deflationary pressures which have endured longer than we originally anticipated as the country's internal devaluation continues. For 2015 and 2016 we have revised down year end forecasts to 1.1% deflation and 0.3%.
Key Risk To Outlook:
* While our core scenario remains for the party-political environment to remain fractious with policy formation highly uncertain there is a risk that a workable centre-right majority coalition could form. This would be the best case scenario in our view and boost the chances of much-needed structural reforms in the energy sector passing through the National Assembly.
* The main risk to our fiscal forecasts is the instability of the banking sector. If another lender were to go bankrupt the government would be forced to step in as was the case with KTB. This would entail another spike in borrowing and would prompt us to revisit our debt and deficit forecasts.
The Bulgaria Country Risk Report helps businesses with market assessment strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in Bulgaria. It is an essential tool for CEOs Chairmen Finance Directors/CFOs Managing Directors Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market.
An influential new analysis of Bulgaria's economic political and financial prospects through end-2019 just published by award-winning forecasters Business Monitor International (BMI).
Key Uses
* Forecast the pace and stability of Bulgaria's economic and industry growth through end-2019.
* Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends to facilitate risk mitigation.
* Assess the critical shortcomings of the operating environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability.
* Contextualise Bulgaria's country risks against regional peers using BMI's country comparative Risk Index system.
* Evaluate external threats to doing business in Bulgaria including currency volatility the commodity price boom and protectionist policies.
The Bulgaria Country Risk Report by Business Monitor International (BMI) includes four major sections:Economic OutlookPolitical OutlookOperational RiskandKey Sector Outlook.
Economic Outlook:
How will the Bulgaria' economic policy-making and performance impact on corporate profitability over 2015-2019?
BMI provides our fully independent 5-year forecasts for Bulgaria through end-2019 for more than 50 economic and key industry indicators. We evaluate growth and also forecast the impact of economic management.
Economic Outlook Contents
The Bulgaria Country Risk Report features BMI's forecasts with supporting analysis for 2015 through to end-2019 set against government views and BMI's evaluation of global and regional prospects.
Key Areas Covered:
Data:
* Full 10-year forecasts with data - for key macroeconomic variables including GDP (real growth and per capita) population inflation current account balance and the exchange rate.
* BMI's comprehensive Risk Index system - rates each country worldwide for economic and political risk and rates the business environment within a global and regional context.
Written Analysis:
* Economic Activity - real GDP growth employment inflation consumption (retail sales and confidence).
* Balance of Payments - trade and investment current and capital account.
* Monetary Policy - interest rate trends (bank lending and deposit rates) and inflation (producer price and consumer price).
* Exchange Rate Policy - currency controls foreign investment flows exchange rates and foreign exchange reserves.
* Fiscal Policy - macroeconomic strategy and policies government finance and tax reforms.
* Foreign Direct Investment - approvals inflows and climate.
* External Debt - debt profile (short and long-term plus public and private sector obligations).
* Global Assumptions - forecasts for each year to end-2019 covering: major commodities growth in key regions inflation and interest and exchange rates in the United States Japan China and the eurozone.
Key Benefits
* Rely upon BMI's 100% independent forecast scenarios for Bulgaria and underlying assumptions - we take no advertising and are privately-owned.
* Exploit the benefits of BMI's comprehensive and reliable macroeconomic database on Bulgaria sourced and fully maintained by BMI from an extensive network of private sector government and multilateral contacts.
* Gain key insights into the current and future direction of government economic policy which could significantly affect your company's business prospects from BMI's team of analysts and economists.
Political Outlook:
What are the political risks to doing business in Bulgaria over the next 5-years?
BMI's Bulgaria country Risk Index evaluates the short- and medium-term threats to political stability.
Political Outlook Contents
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