(MENAFNEditorial)
Core Views:
* Economic growth in Ghana will be buoyant over 2015-2018 thanks to rising oil production and strong investment inflows - the latter encouraged by IMF policy oversight.
* Foreign investment inflows will be robust thanks to Ghana's abundant natural resources and relative political stability.
* The current account deficit and fiscal deficit will remain key structural weaknesses in the economy.
* Peaceful protests against power shortages and economic hardship will take place in 2015. Ghanaians are wary of the conditions that may be attached to IMF support.
Major Forecast Changes:
* We have revised our forecast for the current account following the dramatic drop in oil prices in the final months of 2014. We now project a deficit of 11.9% of GDP in 2015 versus a previous 8.4% forecast.
Key Risks To Outlook:
Full Report Details at
- http://www.fastmr.com/prod/960632_ghana_country_risk_report_q2_2015.aspx?afid=101
* If a deal is not agreed between the government and the IMF investor sentiment will sour severely.
* The Ghanaian cedi remains vulnerable amid the sizeable current account deficit and could depreciate more swiftly than we anticipate.
* Mismanagement of oil revenues - perhaps stemming from insufficient institutional capacity - could dent investor perceptions.
* The Ebola virus could spread to Ghana causing severe illness and death and disrupting economic activity.
The Ghana Country Risk Report helps businesses with market assessment strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in Ghana. It is an essential tool for CEOs Chairmen Finance Directors/CFOs Managing Directors Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market.
An influential new analysis of Ghana's economic political and financial prospects through end-2019 just published by award-winning forecasters Business Monitor International (BMI).
Key Uses
* Forecast the pace and stability of Ghana's economic and industry growth through end-2019.
* Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends to facilitate risk mitigation.
* Assess the critical shortcomings of the operating environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability.
* Contextualise Ghana's country risks against regional peers using BMI's country comparative Risk Index system.
* Evaluate external threats to doing business in Ghana including currency volatility the commodity price boom and protectionist policies.
The Ghana Country Risk Report by Business Monitor International (BMI) includes three major sections:Economic OutlookPolitical OutlookandOperational Risk.
Economic Outlook:
How will the Ghana' economic policy-making and performance impact on corporate profitability over 2015-2019?
BMI provides our fully independent 5-year forecasts for Ghana through end-2019 for more than 50 economic and key industry indicators. We evaluate growth and also forecast the impact of economic management.
Economic Outlook Contents
The Ghana Country Risk Report features BMI's forecasts with supporting analysis for 2015 through to end-2019 set against government views and BMI's evaluation of global and regional prospects.
Key Areas Covered:
Data:
* Full 10-year forecasts with data - for key macroeconomic variables including GDP (real growth and per capita) population inflation current account balance and the exchange rate.
* BMI's comprehensive Risk Index system - rates each country worldwide for economic and political risk and rates the business environment within a global and regional context.
Written Analysis:
* Economic Activity - real GDP growth employment inflation consumption (retail sales and confidence).
* Balance of Payments - trade and investment current and capital account.
* Monetary Policy - interest rate trends (bank lending and deposit rates) and inflation (producer price and consumer price).
* Exchange Rate Policy - currency controls foreign investment flows exchange rates and foreign exchange reserves.
* Fiscal Policy - macroeconomic strategy and policies government finance and tax reforms.
* Foreign Direct Investment - approvals inflows and climate.
* External Debt - debt profile (short and long-term plus public and private sector obligations).
* Global Assumptions - forecasts for each year to end-2019 covering: major commodities growth in key regions inflation and interest and exchange rates in the United States Japan China and the eurozone.
Key Benefits
* Rely upon BMI's 100% independent forecast scenarios for Ghana and underlying assumptions - we take no advertising and are privately-owned.
* Exploit the benefits of BMI's comprehensive and reliable macroeconomic database on Ghana sourced and fully maintained by BMI from an extensive network of private sector government and multilateral contacts.
* Gain key insights into the current and future direction of government economic policy which could significantly affect your company's business prospects from BMI's team of analysts and economists.
Political Outlook:
What are the political risks to doing business in Ghana over the next 5-years?
BMI's Ghana country Risk Index evaluates the short- and medium-term threats to political stability.
Political Outlook Contents
* SWOT Analysis for the Ghana Market - Political Strengths Weaknesses Opportunities and Threats facing Ghana.
* Political Stability and Risk Assessment - BMI's Risk Index assesses explicit short- and long-term risks to political stability; latest positioning and trends for Ghana's risk are compared with regional and global averages.
* Current Administration and Policy-making BMI assesses the threats to the continuity of economic policy and likely changes to the business operating environment.
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