(MENAFNEditorial)
The 2014/15 cocoa harvest looks set to suffer from erratic weather conditions and outbreaks of disease preventing farmers from capitalising on high prices. Slumping earnings from oil should reinforce the government's determination to rebuild the segment into an export powerhouse but may test its capacity to finance ongoing regeneration schemes. The more challenging economic climate is expected to make its effects felt in other segments in the agribusiness complex particularly insofar as climbing rates of inflation may dampen domestic demand for pork and poultry. Meanwhile the Boko Haram insurgency drags on impacting corn production in northern states and threatening the future of wheat production in Nigeria.
Full Report Details at
- http://www.fastmr.com/prod/957435_nigeria_agribusiness_report_q2_2015.aspx?afid=101
Key Forecasts
* Cocoa production growth to 2018/19: 52.8% to 382000 tonnes. Global prices will remain sufficiently elevated to stimulate investment from government and private sector bodies.
* Corn consumption growth to 2019: 16.9% to 9.1mn tonnes. A fast-growing population with steadily rising incomes will ensure steadily rising demand for the staple grain.
* BMI Universe Agribusiness Market Value: 1.7% year-on-year (y-o-y) increase to USD6.08bn in 2015; forecast to grow by 38.8% from 2014-2019.
* Real GDP growth 2015: 5.6% y-o-y (down from 6.2% in 2014).
* Consumer price index (% y-o-y eop) 2015: 12.0% (up from 8.4% in 2014).
Industry Developments
Nigeria's mid-season cocoa harvest could be under threat due to a sustained dry hot spell caused by Harmattan winds blowing in from the Sahara Desert Africa Trade Magazine reports. The winds have blown unceasingly for a month since mid December causing some of the buds that grow into cocoa pods to shrivel up and fall off the trees farmers' representatives have complained. There are also concerns over the impact of black pod disease on the main crop. The fungal infection has reportedly taken hold of many plantations...
The Nigeria Agribusiness Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts for production consumption and trade across core agricultural commodities.
BMI's Nigeria Agribusiness Report includes independent commodity price forecasting and analysis for key agricultural outputs an overview of the agribusiness competitive landscape and a discussion of the downstream context of agricultural production in relation to country food consumption forecasts and composite food and beverage trade forecasts.
Key Benefits
* Use BMI's independent industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful planning in dynamic agribusiness markets.
* Apply BMI's medium-term commodity price analysis to assist with budgetary planning and the identification of investment opportunities and potential risks.
* Assess the activities and market position of your competitors partners and clients.
Coverage
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views highlighting recent changes and key risks to the industry outlook.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major strengths weaknesses opportunities and threats within the wider agricultural industry.
BMI Supply & Demand Forecasts
Divided into sections based on various diverse sectors in the agriculture market the chapter provides insight into each market’s agricultural industry centred on sector forecasts to end-2019 for the consumption production and trade of key commodities.
* Consumption Forecasts: Accompanied by a discussion of the main drivers of consumption growth: macroeconomic factors food processing trends price movements and increasingly demand from the non-food sector.
* Production Forecasts: Examine the trends influencing BMI’s production outlook: global demand price increases public and private sector investment and agricultural efficiency improvements.
* Trade Forecasts: Accompanied by a discussion of the factors influencing a country’s trade in agricultural goods including domestic demand global prices and government trade policies.
* BMI’s Forecasts: Accompanied by a risks-to-outlook assessment which examines potential factors that could affect our existing forecast picture and the likelihood of their occurrence.
BMI’s Commodity Price Analysis
Fundamental and technical analysis of the short- and medium-term price outlook for eight agricultural commodities based on globally recognised benchmarks.
Downstream Analysis
Analysis of headline food and drink forecasts including total food consumption per capita food consumption and total sector trade which provide important downstream intelligence for primary agricultural producers.
Featured Analysis
Includes relevant articles from BMI’s daily analysis service. These can include: long-term projections on agricultural imports and exports; our perceptions of the impacts of economic slowdown on key companies and subsectors within the Agribusiness industry in a given country; our analysis of fertilizer production; as well as other relevant analysis of recent news and events.
Competitive Landscape
The reports contain information on prominent companies operating in each market.
Key Commodities Covered By The Agribusiness Market
Reports Include: Grains Dairy Livestock Rice Sugar Palm Oil Edible Oils Coffee Cocoa Cotton Soybean
Please note – not all reports cover all commodities.
Sources
The Agribusiness reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources such as multilateral organisations government departments industry associations chambers and company reports.
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