(MENAFNEditorial)
Core Views:
* ANC policy is likely to shift left over the course of the next 18 months as the party attempts to fend off a challenge from populist opponents and to stem the loss of support owing the electorate's frustrations with public service delivery.
* The South African economy will benefit from lower oil prices and we have upgraded our 2015 real GDP growth forecast to 2.5% from 2.1% due to oil price declines. Private consumption and to a lesser extent investment will be the main beneficiaries of lower oil prices.
* The South African Reserve Bank will keep the repo rate on hold at 5.75% through 2015 even while the US Federal Reserve hikes rates by 50 basis points. Benign inflationary trends and weak economic growth will prompt the Monetary Policy Committee to become dovish.
* The rand will continue to depreciate against a strong US dollar over the course of 2015. With much of the bad news about the economy priced in and with oil prices heading lower the pace of the declines will be less than that seen in 2013 and 2014.
Full Report Details at
- http://www.fastmr.com/prod/951912_south_africa_country_risk_report_q2_2015.aspx?afid=101
Major Forecast Changes:
* We have upgraded our 2015 real GDP growth forecast to 2.5% from 2.1% previously.
* We have changed our forecast for the 2015 current account deficit to 3.6% of GDP from 4.7% previously.
* We have revised down our 2015 average inflation forecast to 4.7% from 6.0% previously.
Key Risks To Outlook:
* A sustained bout of global risk aversion with an attendant sharp outflow of portfolio funds. This would threaten South Africa's balance of payments.
* A sudden uptick in domestic political risk such as an escalation of the industrial unrest that blighted various sectors in 2013.
Forecast Table:
The South Africa Country Risk Report helps businesses with market assessment strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in South Africa. It is an essential tool for CEOs Chairmen Finance Directors/CFOs Managing Directors Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market.
An influential new analysis of South Africa's economic political and financial prospects through end-2019 just published by award-winning forecasters Business Monitor International (BMI).
Key Uses
* Forecast the pace and stability of South Africa's economic and industry growth through end-2019.
* Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends to facilitate risk mitigation.
* Assess the critical shortcomings of the operating environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability.
* Contextualise South Africa's country risks against regional peers using BMI's country comparative Risk Index system.
* Evaluate external threats to doing business in South Africa including currency volatility the commodity price boom and protectionist policies.
The South Africa Country Risk Report by Business Monitor International (BMI) includes four major sections:Economic OutlookPolitical OutlookOperational RiskandKey Sector Outlook.
Economic Outlook:
How will the South Africa' economic policy-making and performance impact on corporate profitability over 2015-2019?
BMI provides our fully independent 5-year forecasts for South Africa through end-2019 for more than 50 economic and key industry indicators. We evaluate growth and also forecast the impact of economic management.
Economic Outlook Contents
The South Africa Country Risk Report features BMI's forecasts with supporting analysis for 2015 through to end-2019 set against government views and BMI's evaluation of global and regional prospects.
Key Areas Covered:
Data:
* Full 10-year forecasts with data - for key macroeconomic variables including GDP (real growth and per capita) population inflation current account balance and the exchange rate.
* BMI's comprehensive Risk Index system - rates each country worldwide for economic and political risk and rates the business environment within a global and regional context.
Written Analysis:
* Economic Activity - real GDP growth employment inflation consumption (retail sales and confidence).
* Balance of Payments - trade and investment current and capital account.
* Monetary Policy - interest rate trends (bank lending and deposit rates) and inflation (producer price and consumer price).
* Exchange Rate Policy - currency controls foreign investment flows exchange rates and foreign exchange reserves.
* Fiscal Policy - macroeconomic strategy and policies government finance and tax reforms.
* Foreign Direct Investment - approvals inflows and climate.
* External Debt - debt profile (short and long-term plus public and private sector obligations).
* Global Assumptions - forecasts for each year to end-2019 covering: major commodities growth in key regions inflation and interest and exchange rates in the United States Japan China and the eurozone.
Key Benefits
* Rely upon BMI's 100% independent forecast scenarios for South Africa and underlying assumptions - we take no advertising and are privately-owned.
* Exploit the benefits of BMI's comprehensive and reliable macroeconomic database on South Africa sourced and fully maintained by BMI from an extensive network of private sector government and multilateral contacts.
* Gain key insights into the current and future direction of government economic policy which could significantly affect your company's business prospects from BMI's team of analysts and economists.
Political Outlook:
What are the political risks to doing business in South Africa over the next 5-years?
BMI's South Africa country Risk Index evaluates the short- and medium-term threats to political stability.
Political Outlook Contents
* SWOT Analysis for the South Africa Market - Political Strengths Weaknesses Opportunities and Threats facing South Africa.
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