(MENAFNEditorial)
While we hold a positive view on the South African agricultural sector and see particular growth in the livestock sector we are less optimistic on sustained growth in cereals production. This will be due to slower yield growth owing to lower inp ut usage from a weaker currency and limited development in GMO seed plantings. The sugar sector also presents interesting growth opportunities mainly thanks to renewed investment and improved technologies. The country's livestock sector will see greater growth over the coming years owing to lower grain prices and increasing demand from a more affluent population. We believe the country's main a gribusiness companies will reap the benefit from lower global grain prices and therefore lower feed prices.
Key Forecasts
* Sugar production growth 2012/13 to 2017/18: 31.2 % to 2. 65 mn tonnes. This is based on our view that macroeconomic fundamentals together with the increasing use of sugar for biofuels and increasing global sugar prices will have a positive impact on sugar production levels over the long term.
* Poultry consumption growth to 2018: 15.9 % to 2. 0 mn tonnes. As more South African consumers move towards diets containing higher levels of protein poultry (predominantly chicken but also turkey and duck) is increasingly being viewed as a convenient healthy and affordable source of nutrition.
* Corn production growth 2013/14 to 2018/19 : -5.2 % to 14.0 mn tonnes. Growth will be constrained over the next few years as a result of slower yield growth.
* Real GDP growth: 2. 1 % in 201 5 up from 1.4% in 2014.
* Consumer price inflation: 5.7 % in 201 5 down from an average of 6.1% in 2014.
* BMI universe agribusiness market value: 2.3 % year-on-year (y-o-y) decrease to USD1 6.4 bn in 2014/15.
Full Report Details at
- http://www.fastmr.com/prod/951978_south_africa_agribusiness_report_q2_2015.aspx?afid=101
Industry Developments
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The South Africa Agribusiness Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts for production consumption and trade across core agricultural commodities.
BMI's South Africa Agribusiness Report includes independent commodity price forecasting and analysis for key agricultural outputs an overview of the agribusiness competitive landscape and a discussion of the downstream context of agricultural production in relation to country food consumption forecasts and composite food and beverage trade forecasts.
Key Benefits
* Use BMI's independent industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful planning in dynamic agribusiness markets.
* Apply BMI's medium-term commodity price analysis to assist with budgetary planning and the identification of investment opportunities and potential risks.
* Assess the activities and market position of your competitors partners and clients.
Coverage
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views highlighting recent changes and key risks to the industry outlook.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major strengths weaknesses opportunities and threats within the wider agricultural industry.
BMI Supply & Demand Forecasts
Divided into sections based on various diverse sectors in the agriculture market the chapter provides insight into each market’s agricultural industry centred on sector forecasts to end-2019 for the consumption production and trade of key commodities.
* Consumption Forecasts: Accompanied by a discussion of the main drivers of consumption growth: macroeconomic factors food processing trends price movements and increasingly demand from the non-food sector.
* Production Forecasts: Examine the trends influencing BMI’s production outlook: global demand price increases public and private sector investment and agricultural efficiency improvements.
* Trade Forecasts: Accompanied by a discussion of the factors influencing a country’s trade in agricultural goods including domestic demand global prices and government trade policies.
* BMI’s Forecasts: Accompanied by a risks-to-outlook assessment which examines potential factors that could affect our existing forecast picture and the likelihood of their occurrence.
BMI’s Commodity Price Analysis
Fundamental and technical analysis of the short- and medium-term price outlook for eight agricultural commodities based on globally recognised benchmarks.
Downstream Analysis
Analysis of headline food and drink forecasts including total food consumption per capita food consumption and total sector trade which provide important downstream intelligence for primary agricultural producers.
Featured Analysis
Includes relevant articles from BMI’s daily analysis service. These can include: long-term projections on agricultural imports and exports; our perceptions of the impacts of economic slowdown on key companies and subsectors within the Agribusiness industry in a given country; our analysis of fertilizer production; as well as other relevant analysis of recent news and events.
Competitive Landscape
The reports contain information on prominent companies operating in each market.
Key Commodities Covered By The Agribusiness Market
Reports Include: Grains Dairy Livestock Rice Sugar Palm Oil Edible Oils Coffee Cocoa Cotton Soybean
Please note – not all reports cover all commodities.
Sources
The Agribusiness reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources such as multilateral organisations government departments industry associations chambers and company reports.
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