(MENAFNEditorial)
Core Views
* The long-expected collapse of President Uhuru Kenyatta's trial at the ICC will ease tensions between Kenya and its Western allies but could strain relations within the ruling party.
* The politicization of sharp ethnic divisions remains the key threat to Kenya's long-term political stability. Terrorism linked to Kenya's military involvement in Somalia is likely to remain a risk but it does not pose a systemic threat to political stability.
* Kenya's tense security situation will not prevent economic growth from accelerating in 2015 and 2016. Consumer spending and capital investment will drive economic expansion which will average 6.5% per year between 2015 and 2019.
* A combination of accelerating economic growth and systemic under spending by government agencies will cut Kenya's fiscal deficit from 5.5% of GDP in 2014/2015 to 4.8% in 2017/2018. Development spending will rise but remain far below the government's targets.
* A sharp fall in oil prices will cut Kenya's current account deficit in 2015 which had been widened by weak tourism receipts. Low energy prices and accelerating economic diversification should help to narrow the shortfall over the medium term.
* Lower fuel and energy prices will limit Kenyan headline inflation in 2015. The country remains vulnerable to weather fluctuations; a serious drought would cut food production and send prices spiralling.
* The LAPSSET project will provide an economic boost for many communities across Kenya and few will benefit as much as Isiolo. Hopes that the scheme will turn the impoverished backwater into a national hub are however unrealistically optimistic.
* Real GDP growth in Kenya will gradually accelerate over the coming next 10 years averaging 6.5% between 2015 and 2024. While headline growth will be slower than in many African countries Kenya's economy is relatively diversified and growth will be broad-based and comparatively sustainable.
Full Report Details at
- http://www.fastmr.com/prod/951900_kenya_country_risk_report_q2_2015.aspx?afid=101
Major Forecast Changes
* Falling oil prices...
The Kenya Country Risk Report helps businesses with market assessment strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in The Kenya and is an essential tool for CEOs Chairmen Finance Directors/CFOs Managing Directors Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market..
An influential new analysis of The Kenya's economic political and financial prospects through end-2017 just published by award-winning forecasters Business Monitor International (BMI).
Key Uses
* Forecast the pace and stability of The Kenya's economic and industry growth through end-2017.
* Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends to facilitate risk mitigation.
* Assess the critical shortcomings of the business environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability.
* Contextualise The Kenya's country risks against regional peers using BMI's country comparative Risk Ratings system.
* Evaluate external threats to doing business in The Kenya including currency volatility the commodity price boom and protectionist policies.
The Kenya Country Risk Report by Business Monitor International (BMI) includes three major sections:Economic OutlookPolitical OutlookandBusiness Environment.
Economic Outlook:
How will the Kenyan economic policy-making and performance impact on corporate profitability over 2013-2017?
BMI provides our fully independent 5-year forecasts for The Kenya through end-2017 for more than 50 economic and key industry indicators. We evaluate growth and also forecast the impact of economic management.
Economic Outlook Contents
The Kenya Country Risk Report features BMI's forecasts with supporting analysis for 2013 through to end-2017 set against government views and BMI's evaluation of global and regional prospects.
Key Areas Covered:
Data:
* Full 10-year forecasts with data - for key macroeconomic variables including GDP (real growth and per capita) population inflation current account balance and the exchange rate.
* BMI's comprehensive Risk Ratings system - rates each country worldwide for economic and political risk and rates the business environment within a global and regional context.
Written Analysis:
* Economic Activity - real GDP growth employment inflation consumption (retail sales and confidence).
* Balance of Payments - trade and investment current and capital account.
* Monetary Policy - interest rate trends (bank lending and deposit rates) and inflation (producer price and consumer price).
* Exchange Rate Policy - currency controls foreign investment flows exchange rates and foreign exchange reserves.
* Fiscal Policy - macroeconomic strategy and policies government finance and tax reforms.
* Foreign Direct Investment - approvals inflows and climate.
* External Debt - debt profile (short and long-term plus public and private sector exposure).
* Global Assumptions - forecasts for each year to end-2017 covering: major commodities growth in key regions inflation and interest and exchange rates in the United States Japan China and the eurozone.
Key Benefits
* Rely upon BMI's 100% independent forecast scenarios for The Kenya and underlying assumptions - we take no advertising and are privately-owned.
* Exploit the benefits of BMI's comprehensive and reliable macroeconomic database on The Kenya sourced and fully maintained by BMI from an extensive network of private sector government and multilateral contacts.
* Gain key insights into the current and future direction of government economic policy which could significantly affect your company's business prospects from BMI's team of analysts and economists.
Political Outlook:
What are the political risks to doing business in The Kenya over the next 5-years?
BMI's The Kenya country Risk Ratings evaluate the short- and medium-term threats to political stability.
Political Outlook Contents
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