(MENAFNEditorial)
We forecast a decline in grains growth in 2015/16 in France as weak wheat prices around the planting season likely led to a decline in plantings. We forecast wheat production to grow over our forecast period and expect production to reach 40.0mn tonnes by 2018/19. The dairy sector will not be fundamentally affected by the removal of the EU's production quota in early 2015 but will expand out to 2019. Cheese production will grow strongly as international exports will be in strong demand. Poultry output growth will outperform that of the broader livestock sector as soft economic growth will encourage consumption.
Key Forecasts
* Wheat production growth 2013/14 to 2018/19: 2.7% to 40.0mn tonnes. We expect wheat to remain one of the most profitable crop in the country and the one most in demand for domestic use and exports.
* Poultry consumption growth to 2018: 4.9% to 1.7mn tonnes. We see stronger long-term demand growth for poultry than for pork or beef owing to poultry's general affordability and reputation for better health benefits than red meat.
* Cheese production growth to 2017/18: 8.8% to 2.2mn tonnes. Over the longer term we expect consolidation in the dairy industry to allow producers to take advantage of rising quotas and export demand. We also believe the European Commission's decision to adopt new legislation allowing producers to collectively negotiate contracts with processors will improve the profitability of milk production in turn supporting output.
* 2015 real GDP growth: 0.7 % (up from 0.3% in 2014).
* Consumer price inflation: 0.5% average in 2015 (flat on 2014).
* BMI universe agribusiness market value: 1.7% year-on-year (y-o-y) increase to USD65.90bn in 2014/15.
Full Report Details at
- http://www.fastmr.com/prod/951097_france_agribusiness_report_q2_2015.aspx?afid=101
Industry Developments
We expect grains production to decline in 2015/16 as global grain prices performed poorly in 2014. Wheat prices were weak over the 2015/16 planting season which...
The France Agribusiness Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts for production consumption and trade across core agricultural commodities.
BMI's France Agribusiness Report includes independent commodity price forecasting and analysis for key agricultural outputs an overview of the agribusiness competitive landscape and a discussion of the downstream context of agricultural production in relation to country food consumption forecasts and composite food and beverage trade forecasts.
Key Benefits
* Use BMI's independent industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful planning in dynamic agribusiness markets.
* Apply BMI's medium-term commodity price analysis to assist with budgetary planning and the identification of investment opportunities and potential risks.
* Assess the activities and market position of your competitors partners and clients.
Coverage
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views highlighting recent changes and key risks to the industry outlook.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths Weaknesses Opportunities and Threats within the wider agricultural industry.
BMI Supply & Demand Forecasts
Divided into sections based on various diverse sectors in the agriculture market the chapter provides insight into each market’s agricultural industry centred on sector forecasts to end-2019 for the consumption production and trade of key commodities.
* Consumption Forecasts are accompanied by a discussion of the main drivers of consumption growth: macroeconomic factors food processing trends price movements and increasingly demand from the non-food sector.
* Production Forecasts examine the trends influencing BMI’s production outlook: global demand price increases public and private sector investment and agricultural efficiency improvements.
* Trade Forecasts are accompanied by a discussion of the factors influencing a country’s trade in agricultural goods including domestic demand global prices and government trade policies.
* BMI’s Forecasts are accompanied by a Risks-to-Outlook assessment which examines potential factors that could affect our existing forecast picture and the likelihood of their occurrence.
BMI’s Commodity Price Analysis
Fundamental and technical analysis of the short- and medium-term price outlook for eight agricultural commodities based on globally recognised benchmarks.
Downstream Analysis
Analysis of headline food and drink forecasts including total food consumption per capita food consumption and total sector trade which provide important downstream intelligence for primary agricultural producers.
Featured Analysis
Includes relevant articles from BMI’s daily analysis service. These can include long-term projections on agricultural imports and exports our perceptions of the impacts of economic slowdown on key companies and subsectors within the Agribusiness industry in a given country our analysis of fertilizer production as well as other relevant analysis of recent news and events.
Competitive landscape
The reports contain information on prominent companies operating in each market.
Key Commodities covered by the Agribusiness market Reports include:
Grains Dairy Livestock Rice Sugar Palm Oil Edible Oils Coffee Cocoa Cotton Soybean
Please note – not all Reports cover all commodities.
Sources
The Agribusiness Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources such as multilateral organisations government departments industry associations chambers and company reports.
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