(MENAFNEditorial)
In recent months there has been a slowdown in new car sales within Kuwait. 8M14 sales data from the Best Selling Cars blog suggests that annual growth has eased back to 2% from a reported 7% growth over H114. This makes for total sales of 100964 units year-to-date. Against this deteriorating backdrop BMI has scaled back its own forecast for 2014 new vehicle sales in Kuwait from 8% to 3%. This more cautious stance comes against a backdrop of plunging prices on world markets for Kuwait's key commodity export oil.
Our core scenario is for growth to remain solid but unspectacular over 2015. BMI's Country Risk team is expecting GDP growth of 2.7% down from the estimated 3% in 2013 and 2.9% in 2014. In particular the fact that the oil sector still holds such significant weight within the wider economy (at 65.2% of GDP in 2013) will ensure that economic growth is subdued over the near term.
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On a regional level we believe that Kuwait will continue to lag the rest of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) over the coming years. The dominant hydrocarbons sector will weigh on headline growth while efforts to diversify the economy away from oil remain on a small scale. Moreover we remain cautious on the country's medium-term investment outlook although we note that an acceleration in bank lending over H114 and signs of progress on some of Kuwait's development projects have improved the growth prospects for gross fixed capital formation.
Turning to the outlook for private consumption - a key indicator of likely demand for new passenger vehicles - we believe that this continues to be broadly positive bolstered by recent salary hikes and state benefit payments coupled to a low interest rate environment. BMI is targeting growth in private consumption of 3% in 2015 which should lend support to auto sales. While the ARA index of consumer confidence has been heading slightly lower in recent months the increase in the number of point-of-sale transactions (a proxy for...
The Kuwait Autos Report features the latest data and forecasts covering production sales imports and exports.
Business Monitor International (BMI)'s Kuwait Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists corporate analysts auto associations government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the automotives market in Kuwait.
Key Benefits
* Benchmark BMI's independent automotives industry forecasts on Kuwait to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Kuwaiti automotives market.
* Target business opportunities and risks in the Kuwaiti automotives sector through our reviews of latest industry trends regulatory changes and major deals projects and investments in Kuwait.
* Assess the activities and market position of your competitors partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape Analysis.
Coverage
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views covering production sales and the introduction of new technology or products.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths Weaknesses Opportunities and Threats within the autos sector and within the broader political economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series and forecasts to end- 2019 for all key industry indicators (see list below) supported by explicit assumptions plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast including:Sales and production of motorcycles in units; total production of units; production by vehicle type (including cars commercial vehicles trucks and buses); total vehicle fleet size in units; sales by vehicle type including passenger cars and commercial vehicles; fleet size by vehicle type including passenger car commercial vehicles and motorcycles; total vehicle trade balance in units; vehicle trade balance by vehicle type including passenger car commercial vehicle and motorcycle; car ownership measured as car density per 1000 people.
BMI’s Autos Risk Reward index
BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (manufacturers suppliers and dealers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors with each indices explained.
BMI Economic Forecasts
BMI forecasts to end-2019 for all headline macroeconomic indicators including real GDP growth inflation fiscal balance trade balance current account and external debt.
Company Profiles*
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
Global Regional and Country Industry Overviews
In-depth analysis of the major global and regional developments in the market which can be linked with the country industry overview providing cross-country investment product and financing trends that will affect each market supported by BMI’s global and regional industry forecasts.
Sources
The Autos Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources such as manufacturing associations statistical bureaus government transport ministries national chambers of commerce and industry national statistical offices government ministries and central banks and multinational companies.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.
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