(MENAFNEditorial)
Saudi Arabia has seen continued strong growth in new vehicle sales over 2014 year-to-date. 8M14 sales figures stand at 544810 units. Given this positive backdrop BMI has slightly revised upwards its 2014 sales forecast from 5.4% to 5.9% annual growth.
Despite the recent sharp decline in international oil prices we believe that the country's macroeconomic backdrop remains broadly favourable with BMI's Country Risk team forecasting real GDP growth of 3.6% in 2015 on the back of an increasingly positive outlook for construction activity. Indeed we see Saudi Arabia's economic performance remaining strong heading into 2015 on the back of high levels of private consumption (which will support demand for passenger vehicles) and fixed investment (which should boost demand for commercial vehicles).
Turning to private consumption - a key indicator of likely demand for new vehicles - BMI retains a bullish view this quarter forecasting growth of 5% in 2015. Retail sales are set to benefit over the year from structural factors including rising disposable incomes favourable demographics and increasing urbanisation. Annual growth in the value of point-of-sale transactions a proxy for retail sales has strengthened over 2014 rising to a 29-month high of 28.3% in August.
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Strong levels of private consumption should therefore lend support to demand for new cars. Auto financing should also remain fairly affordable with monetary policy conditions set to remain supportive. BMI believes that Saudi consumer price inflation (CPI) will stay at a moderate annual average of 3.4% in 2015 in large part thanks to the strength of the US dollar. As such we expect no change to the Saudi Arabian Monetary Agency's key policy rates over the coming quarters with the repo and reverse repo set to stay at their current levels of 2.0% and 0.25% respectively. This will help any Saudi residents who require financing in order to purchase a new vehicle.
Overall we believe that confidence...
The Saudi Arabia Autos Report features the latest data and forecasts covering production sales imports and exports.
Business Monitor International (BMI)'s Saudi Arabia Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists corporate analysts auto associations government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the automotives market in Saudi Arabia.
Key Benefits
* Benchmark BMI's independent automotives industry forecasts on Saudi Arabia to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Saudi automotives market.
* Target business opportunities and risks in the Saudi automotives sector through our reviews of latest industry trends regulatory changes and major deals projects and investments in Saudi Arabia.
* Assess the activities and market position of your competitors partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape Analysis.
Coverage
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views covering production sales and the introduction of new technology or products.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths Weaknesses Opportunities and Threats within the autos sector and within the broader political economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series and forecasts to end- 2019 for all key industry indicators (see list below) supported by explicit assumptions plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast including:Sales and production of motorcycles in units; total production of units; production by vehicle type (including cars commercial vehicles trucks and buses); total vehicle fleet size in units; sales by vehicle type including passenger cars and commercial vehicles; fleet size by vehicle type including passenger car commercial vehicles and motorcycles; total vehicle trade balance in units; vehicle trade balance by vehicle type including passenger car commercial vehicle and motorcycle; car ownership measured as car density per 1000 people.
BMI’s Autos Risk Reward index
BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (manufacturers suppliers and dealers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors with each indices explained.
BMI Economic Forecasts
BMI forecasts to end-2019 for all headline macroeconomic indicators including real GDP growth inflation fiscal balance trade balance current account and external debt.
Company Profiles*
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
Global Regional and Country Industry Overviews
In-depth analysis of the major global and regional developments in the market which can be linked with the country industry overview providing cross-country investment product and financing trends that will affect each market supported by BMI’s global and regional industry forecasts.
Sources
The Autos Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources such as manufacturing associations statistical bureaus government transport ministries national chambers of commerce and industry national statistical offices government ministries and central banks and multinational companies.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.
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