(MENAFNEditorial)
Despite a rapid ramp-up in production in recent months we see continued political instability a deteriorating security environment and recurrent production shut-ins drag on overall oil output levels. Efforts to increase oil exports will also be undercut by both disruptions in the supply and increased oversaturation of the Atlantic light sweet crude market depressing demand. Finally we have downgraded the country's sustainable production capacity this quarter to below 1mn b/d and see wide infrastructural damage high depletion rates and limited investment inflows undermine efforts at a longer-term recovery in output.
The key trends and developments in Libya's oil and gas sector are:
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* Libya's oil and gas reserves stood at an estimated at 48.0bn barrels (bbl) and 1.5trn cubic metres (tcm) respectively at the start of 2015. However political risks the introduction of new production sharing contracts and a revised hydrocarbon law are all likely to affect the country's business environment and international appetite for investment.
* Ongoing instability in Libya affected production throughout 2014 and we expect this dynamic to continue into 2015. We forecast 2015 production of 618000 barrels per day (b/d). We have revised down our longer-term forecast expecting weaker investor sentiment and infrastructural...
The Libya Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasts for Libya including major indicators for oil gas and LNG covering all major indicators including reserves production consumption refining capacity prices export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.
BMI's Libya Oil & Gas Report provides professionals consultancies government departments regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Libyan oil and gas industry.
Key Benefits
* Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Libya to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Libyan oil and gas market.
* Target business opportunities and risks in the Libyan oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends regulatory changes and major deals projects and investments in Libya.
* Assess the activities strategy and market position of your competitors partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.
Coverage
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key forecasts and industry analysis covering oil and gas reserves supply demand and refining plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.
Regional Overview
Regional perspective on size and value of industry sector; comparative rankings by production refining imports and exports of oil gas and LNG.
Business Environment Rankings
BMI's Oil and Gas Business Environment Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors (independents NOCs IOCs and oil services companies) in the upstream and downstream markets.
The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of more than 40 industry economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Rankings products.
Oil Market Outlook and Oil Products Outlook
Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption BMI provides demand supply and price forecasts to end-2018 for oil gas and oil products
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below) supported by explicit assumptions plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast including:
Pricing: Oil price (US$/bbl WTI Brent OPEC basket Urals); Oil products prices (unleaded gasoline gasoil/diesel jet/kerosene - US$/bbl) at global hubs
Production Consumption Capacity and Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels) production consumption refinery capacity and throughputs (`000b/d); Proven gas reserves (tcm) production and consumption (bcm)
Imports and Exports: Oil exports/imports (`000b/d) value of oil exports/imports (US$mn - BMI base case); Value of oil exports at constant US$50/bbl and constant US$100/bbl (US$mn); Gas exports/imports (bcm) Value of gas exports/imports (US$mn); Value of gas exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn)
BMI Macroeconomic Forecasts
BMI forecasts to end-2018 for all headline macroeconomic indicators including real GDP growth inflation fiscal balance trade balance current account and external debt.
Competitive Landscape
Comparative company analyses by US$ sales % share of total sales number of employees year established ownership structure oil production ('000b/d) gas production (bcm) downstream capacity ('000b/d) and % market share.
Company Profiles
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
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