(MENAFNEditorial)
BMI maintains its broadly positive view on Peru's freight transport sector. External headwinds stemming from lower metals prices associated with weak Chinese demand have intensified in Peru in recent quarters and we expect this to continue to weigh on economic growth in the coming years. We now project real GDP growth of 4.0% in 2015 compared with our previous projections of 5.0%. However significant mineral wealth attractive investment opportunities at the sector level and an improving consumer story underpin our view that Peru will remain one of the most dynamic economies in Latin America in the coming years.
Further upside risk comes from the recently announced plan to heavily invest in Peru's transport network which BMI believes will help boost the country's freight transport volumes through providing easier routes to market. However we caution that perhaps the plan is overly ambitious and might not quite hit the desired target by the scheduled date. According to Peru's transport and communications minister Carlos Paredes Rodrígues USD22bn is set to be invested in the Latin American country's transport and communications sectors by 2016.
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There are significant downside risks to our growth outlook. Slower-than-expected growth in China especially stemming from the dynamics of a rapidly cooling property market and high domestic debt could weigh further on investment and metals exports in Peru.
We anticipate that Peru will continue to be hit hard through the trade and investment channels due to weaker Chinese demand lower average metals prices and more moderate capital expenditure plans by major mining firms.
Headline Industry Data
* We expect growth of 9.3% in total tonnage throughput at the Port of Callao to 31.5mn tonnes in 2015.
* We predict air freight volume to increase 3.9% to 343000 tonnes in 2015.
* We expect rail freight carried (volume x distance) to contract by 3.7%% to 879mn tonnes-km in 2015.
Key Industry Trends
Key Risks To...
The Peru Freight Transport Report has been researched at source and features latest-available data covering commercial transport and logistics by road rail air and water; industry forecasts company rankings covering leading national and multinational operators; and analysis of latest industry trends opportunities projects and regulatory changes.
Business Monitor International (BMI)'s Peru Freight Transport Report provides industry professionals and strategists sector analysts investors trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Peruvian freight transport and logistics industry.
Key Benefits
* Benchmark BMI's independent freight transport industry forecasts on Peru to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the strategic freight transport market.
* Target business opportunities and risks in the Peruvian freight transport sector through our reviews of latest industry trends regulatory changes and major deals projects and investments in Peru.
* Assess the activities strategy and market position of your competitors partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs KPIs and latest activity).
Coverage
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts views and trend analysis covering freight transport and logistics regulatory changes major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths Weaknesses Opportunities and Threats within the freight sector and within the broader political economic and business environment.
Industry Trends And Developments
Analysis of latest projects across the freight transport sector (road rail air sea and logistics) including market overview which provides an outline of the key elements driving development.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and macroeconomic indicators supported by explicit assumptions plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast including:
Transport Sector: Sector Value (US$bn); sector real growth (%); employment (`000); total freight carried by road rail inland waterways maritime air and pipeline (mn tonnes-km/mn tonnes)
Trade: Exports and imports (US$mn) by category of goods (manufactured goods food chemicals etc.); top-5 import and export trade partners (US$mn); imports/exports to each global region (US$mn)
Port Data: Throughput (`000 tonnes) and container throughput (TEU) for all major ports in the state
Oil Products Prices: Price forecasts for gasoline and aviation fuel (US$/bbl) at all major global energy trading hubs
Economic Indicators: Nominal GDP (US$bn); real GDP growth (%); GDP per capita (US$); industrial production (%); unemployment (%)
Market Overview
Details of the freight infrastructure in each state by segment (road rail air water and pipelines). Full analysis of the competitive landscape within each segment.
Political Outlook
The freight reports contain a chapter detailing the political outlook of a given region examining the domestic politics long-term outlook and foreign policy and assessing the impact this could have on freight and transport businesses.
Company Profiles
Examines the short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT (Strengths Weaknesses Opportunities and Threats) analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
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