(MENAFNEditorial)
The ongoing crisis in Ukraine will ensure support for President Alexander Lukashenko remains robust in the run up to the 2015 presidential election. Opinion polls indicate voters prefer the stability engendered by the regime to the uncertainty following the ousting of the president and we believe the government will continue to divide its focus between closer Russian and EU relations.
* The Belarusian economy will receive a boost over the remainder of 2014 and into 2015 as agricultural exports to Russia increase in the wake of the Kremlin's ban on Western food imports. Nevertheless the damage done to the Russian economy by the tit-for-tat sanctions will feed through into declining investment into Belarus and a fall in export demand beyond the initial one-year timeframe for the import ban.
* Consumer price inflation in Belarus will remain elevated in the quarters ahead as Russia's ban on the import of foodstuffs from the EU and other Western states results in higher export volumes to Russia but a constriction in domestic supply.
Full Report Details at
- http://www.fastmr.com/prod/924063_belarus_business_forecast_report_q1_2015.aspx?afid=101
Major Forecast Changes
* In light of the close economic and political relationship between Belarus and Russia geographic proximity and already entrenched agricultural bilateral trade links we believe exports to Russia (Belarus' largest export market) will increase over the remainder of 2014 and into 2015. As a result we have revised up our real GDP growth forecast for 2014 from 0.1% to 0.8% (still well below the optimistic 3.3% target set by President Alexander Lukashenko) but we hold to our forecast of 0.9% in 2015.
Key Risks To Outlook
* In the event Belarus' political opposition groups can agree on a single candidate for the 2015 presidential election it may pose more of a challenge to Lukashenko than we currently expect. Opinion polls indicate that in the event a single opposition candidate were to run the individual would likely receive more support than Lukashenko. Nevertheless the outcome of the election will...
The Belarus Business Forecast Report helps businesses with market assessment strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in Belarus and is an essential tool for CEOs Chairmen Finance Directors/CFOs Managing Directors Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market..
An influential new analysis of Belarus' economic political and financial prospects through end-2017 just published by award-winning forecasters Business Monitor International (BMI).
Key Uses
* Forecast the pace and stability of Belarus' economic and industry growth through end-2017.
* Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends to facilitate risk mitigation.
* Assess the critical shortcomings of the business environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability.
* Contextualise Belarus' country risks against regional peers using BMI's country comparative Risk Ratings system.
* Evaluate external threats to doing business in Belarus including currency volatility the commodity price boom and protectionist policies.
The Belarus Business Forecast Report by Business Monitor International (BMI) includes three major sections:Economic OutlookPolitical OutlookandBusiness Environment.
Economic Outlook:
How will the Belarusian economic policy-making and performance impact on corporate profitability over 2013-2017?
BMI provides our fully independent 5-year forecasts for Belarus through end-2017 for more than 50 economic and key industry indicators. We evaluate growth and also forecast the impact of economic management.
Economic Outlook Contents
The Belarus Business Forecast Report features BMI's forecasts with supporting analysis for 2013 through to end-2017 set against government views and BMI's evaluation of global and regional prospects.
Key Areas Covered:
Data:
* Full 10-year forecasts with data - for key macroeconomic variables including GDP (real growth and per capita) population inflation current account balance and the exchange rate.
* BMI's comprehensive Risk Ratings system - rates each country worldwide for economic and political risk and rates the business environment within a global and regional context.
Written Analysis:
* Economic Activity - real GDP growth employment inflation consumption (retail sales and confidence).
* Balance of Payments - trade and investment current and capital account.
* Monetary Policy - interest rate trends (bank lending and deposit rates) and inflation (producer price and consumer price).
* Exchange Rate Policy - currency controls foreign investment flows exchange rates and foreign exchange reserves.
* Fiscal Policy - macroeconomic strategy and policies government finance and tax reforms.
* Foreign Direct Investment - approvals inflows and climate.
* External Debt - debt profile (short and long-term plus public and private sector exposure).
* Global Assumptions - forecasts for each year to end-2017 covering: major commodities growth in key regions inflation and interest and exchange rates in the United States Japan China and the eurozone.
Key Benefits
* Rely upon BMI's 100% independent forecast scenarios for Belarus and underlying assumptions - we take no advertising and are privately-owned.
* Exploit the benefits of BMI's comprehensive and reliable macroeconomic database on Belarus sourced and fully maintained by BMI from an extensive network of private sector government and multilateral contacts.
* Gain key insights into the current and future direction of government economic policy which could significantly affect your company's business prospects from BMI's team of analysts and economists.
Political Outlook:
What are the political risks to doing business in Belarus over the next 5-years?
BMI's Belarus country Risk Ratings evaluate the short- and medium-term threats to political stability.
Political Outlook Contents
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