(MENAFNEditorial)
We believe that grains production growth over the next five years will slow relative to the preceding five. Nevertheless we forecast strong grains production growth through to the end of our forecast period . We expect soybean output to outperform in the next few seasons and the price of the oilseed to remain elevated relative to corn. We also see strong growth in the livestock and dairy sectors as these will benefit from Russia's ban on imports of US products. We hold a more positive view on the sugar industry now than we have held in the past though the country's ethanol sector remains in a poor state as evidenced by the number of mills that have gone bankrupt in the last year.
Full Report Details at
- http://www.fastmr.com/prod/924110_brazil_agribusiness_report_q1_2015.aspx?afid=101
Key Forecasts
* Soybean production growth 2012/13 to 2017/18: 14.3% to 93.8mn tonnes. This will come as more area is shifted from corn to soy over the next few years on the back of an extremely competitive soy/corn ratio by historical standards.
* Poultry consumption growth to 2018: 17.0% to 10.3mn tonnes. A growing middle class and the general preference for poultry over all other meat groups because of its health properties and lower prices will encourage demand growth.
* Milk production growth to 2017/18: 20.0 % to 38.9mn tonnes. Brazil has the potential to become a significant exporter of dairy products over the forecast period to 2018 if its milk collection and processing infrastructure can be brought up to international standards.
* 2015 real GDP growth: 1. 5 % (up from 0.7% in 2014).
* 2 014 consumer price inflation: 5.7 % average (down from 6.2% in 2014).
* BMI universe agribusiness market value: 2.0% year-on-year (y-o-y) increase to USD181.8bn in 2015 forecast to increase by an average of 3.1% annually between 2014/15 and 2017/18.
Industry Outlook
Corn output in Brazil will decline by 6.7% year-on-year (y-o-y) in 2014/15 to reach 74.0mn tonnes. The 2014/15 planting season is...
The Brazil Agribusiness Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts for production consumption and trade across core agricultural commodities.
BMI's Brazil Agribusiness Report includes independent commodity price forecasting and analysis for key agricultural outputs an overview of the agribusiness competitive landscape and a discussion of the downstream context of agricultural production in relation to country food consumption forecasts and composite food and beverage trade forecasts.
Key Benefits
* Use BMI's independent industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful planning in dynamic agribusiness markets.
* Apply BMI's medium-term commodity price analysis to assist with budgetary planning and the identification of investment opportunities and potential risks.
* Assess the activities and market position of your competitors partners and clients.
Coverage
BMI Industry View
An analytical summary of BMI's latest key industry forecasts and views highlighting recent changes and key risks to the industry outlook for agribusiness in Brazil.
Industry SWOT Analysis
At-a-glance perspectives on the Strengths Weaknesses Opportunities and Threats facing the agricultural industry.
BMI Supply & Demand Forecasts
Divided into sections based on various diverse sectors in the agriculture market the chapter provides insight into each market's agricultural industry centred on sector forecasts to end-2018 for the consumption production and trade of key agricultural commodities.
Consumption forecasts are accompanied by a discussion of the main drivers of consumption growth: macroeconomic factors food processing trends price movements and increasingly demand from the non-food sector.
Production forecasts examine the trends influencing BMI's production outlook: global demand price increases public and private sector investment and agricultural efficiency improvements.
Trade forecasts are accompanied by a discussion of the factors influencing a country's trade in agricultural goods including domestic demand global prices and government trade policies.
BMI's forecasts are accompanied by a Risks- to-Outlook assessment which examines potential factors that could affect our existing forecast picture and the likelihood of their occurrence.
BMI's Commodity Price Analysis
Fundamental and technical analysis of the short- and medium-term price outlook for key agricultural commodities based on globally-recognised benchmarks.
Downstream Analysis
Analysis of headline food and drink forecasts including total food consumption per capita food consumption and total sector trade which provide important downstream intelligence for primary agricultural producers.
Featured Analysis
Includes relevant articles from BMI's daily analysis service. These can include long-term projections on agricultural imports and exports our perceptions of the impacts of economic slowdown on key companies and subsectors within the Agribusiness industry in a given country our analysis of fertilizer production as well as other relevant analysis of recent news and events on Store and Landing Pages.
Methodology & Sourcing
The Brazil Agribusiness Report is based on an extensive network of multilateral organisations government departments industry associations chambers and company reports.
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