(MENAFNEditorial)
Core Views
* Although we view positively Turkey's long-term growth outlook we expect slower more balanced growth in the next decade relative to the previous one. This will result from less abundant foreign capital inflows and slower domestic credit growth.
* Political uncertainty and social tensions will rise in the run up to general elections in 2015 further weighing on business and consumer confidence.
* The government maintains a conservative fiscal policy with healthy budget and debt dynamics. However recent populist policy initiatives lead us to question the government's long-term commitment to conservative fiscal management.
* While the government's debt load is low by regional standards the private sector's rampant external borrowing in previous years has greatly increased macroeconomic risks.
* Lower commodity prices in particular that of oil has bolstered Turkey's short-term outlook. Lower imported energy costs will support household purchasing power and help reduce the current account deficit.
* Nevertheless we expect Turkey's current account deficit to narrow gradually in coming years as its net hydrocarbon deficit will remain very large. Turkey will remain reliant on short-term foreign capital inflows to cover the sizeable current account shortfall leaving it prone to tightening global liquidity and shifts in international risk sentiment.
* A dovish central bank will keep inflation above target and ensure a volatile growth trajectory.
* A major corruption scandal and increased incidence of popular protest have highlighted the fact that major political challenges still face the country over the medium term. In particular the ruling Justice and Development party will take an increasingly unilateral approach as it struggles to maintain support and will face growing and more vocal public and institutional opposition with the potential for further unrest. Moreover Turkey faces a challenging foreign policy environment amidst heightened...
Full Report Details at
- http://www.fastmr.com/prod/924084_turkey_business_forecast_report_q1_2015.aspx?afid=101
The Turkey Business Forecast Report helps businesses with market assessment strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in Turkey and is an essential tool for CEOs Chairmen Finance Directors/CFOs Managing Directors Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market.
An influential new analysis of Turkey's economic political and financial prospects through end-2018 just published by award-winning forecasters Business Monitor International (BMI).
Key Uses
* Forecast the pace and stability of Turkey's economic and industry growth through end-2018.
* Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends to facilitate risk mitigation.
* Assess the critical shortcomings of the business environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability.
* Contextualise Turkey's country risks against regional peers using BMI's country comparative Risk Rankings system.
* Evaluate external threats to doing business in Turkey including currency volatility the commodity price boom and protectionist policies.
The Turkey Business Forecast Report by Business Monitor International (BMI) includes four major sections:Economic OutlookPolitical OutlookBusiness EnvironmentandKey Sector Outlook.
Economic Outlook:
How will the Turkey economic policy-making and performance impact on corporate profitability over 2014-2018?
BMI provides our fully independent 5-year forecasts for Turkey through end-2018 for more than 50 economic and key industry indicators. We evaluate growth and also forecast the impact of economic management.
Economic Outlook Contents
The Turkey Business Forecast Report features BMI's forecasts with supporting analysis for 2014 through to end-2018 set against government views and BMI's evaluation of global and regional prospects.
Key Areas Covered:
Data:
* Full 10-year forecasts with data - for key macroeconomic variables including GDP (real growth and per capita) population inflation current account balance and the exchange rate.
* BMI's comprehensive Risk Rankings system - rates each country worldwide for economic and political risk and rates the business environment within a global and regional context.
Written Analysis:
* Economic Activity - real GDP growth employment inflation consumption (retail sales and confidence).
* Balance of Payments - trade and investment current and capital account.
* Monetary Policy - interest rate trends (bank lending and deposit rates) and inflation (producer price and consumer price).
* Exchange Rate Policy - currency controls foreign investment flows exchange rates and foreign exchange reserves.
* Fiscal Policy - macroeconomic strategy and policies government finance and tax reforms.
* Foreign Direct Investment - approvals inflows and climate.
* External Debt - debt profile (short and long-term plus public and private sector exposure).
* Global Assumptions - forecasts for each year to end-2018 covering: major commodities growth in key regions inflation and interest and exchange rates in the United States Japan China and the eurozone.
Key Benefits
* Rely upon BMI's 100% independent forecast scenarios for Turkey and underlying assumptions - we take no advertising and are privately-owned.
* Exploit the benefits of BMI's comprehensive and reliable macroeconomic database on Turkey sourced and fully maintained by BMI from an extensive network of private sector government and multilateral contacts.
* Gain key insights into the current and future direction of government economic policy which could significantly affect your company's business prospects from BMI's team of analysts and economists.
Political Outlook:
What are the political risks to doing business in Turkey over the next 5-years?
BMI's Turkey country Risk Rankings evaluate the short- and medium-term threats to political stability.
Political Outlook Contents
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