(MENAFNEditorial)
Core Views
* While Thailand's military leaders have taken tentative steps to restore civilian rule a return to a well-functioning democracy is far from assured. The political divide will remain unresolved and the potential for renewed instability will continue to undermine the country's long-term economic growth potential.
* Still soft domestic demand and weakness in external performance continue to keep the Thai economy sluggish. Consequently we are downgrading our 2014 real GDP growth forecast to 0.7% from 1.6% previously. That said we expect growth to rebound to 4.1% in 2015 on the back of ongoing efforts by the junta to revive the economy amid renewed political stability.
* We forecast Thailand's budget deficit to narrow from an estimated 2.6% of GDP in 2014 to 2.0% in 2015 as we expect an economic rebound to shore up fiscal revenue while the removal of the rice subsidy scheme and the fall in oil prices should keep expenditure in check. That said should the junta pursue populist measures this will pose downside risk to our forecast.
* An economic recovery and interest rate normalisation in the US that will likely occur in H215 would spur the BoT to raise its benchmark interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 2.25% in 2015.
* While a stronger US dollar will weigh on the Thai baht a likely economic rebound in Thailand in 2015 and continued strong foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows will provide support for the unit. On balance we hold a neutral outlook for the Thai baht and are forecasting the currency to average THB32.75/USD in 2015 and end 2015 at THB33.00/USD.
Full Report Details at
- http://www.fastmr.com/prod/924083_thailand_business_forecast_report_q1_2015.aspx?afid=101
Major Forecast Changes
* We have downgraded our 2014 growth forecast to 0.7% from 1.6% previously.
* We have pared back our expectations for a total of 50 basis points (bps) interest rate hike in 2015 owing to deflationary forces at play and are now calling for just one 25 bps worth of hike.
* We forecast the Thai baht to average THB32.75/USD (from THB31.75/USD previously) in...
The Thailand Business Forecast Report helps businesses with market assessment strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in Thailand and is an essential tool for CEOs Chairmen Finance Directors/CFOs Managing Directors Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market.
An influential new analysis of Thailand's economic political and financial prospects through end-2018 just published by award-winning forecasters Business Monitor International (BMI).
Key Uses
* Forecast the pace and stability of Thailand's economic and industry growth through end-2018.
* Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends to facilitate risk mitigation.
* Assess the critical shortcomings of the business environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability.
* Contextualise Thailand's country risks against regional peers using BMI's country comparative Risk Rankings system.
* Evaluate external threats to doing business in Thailand including currency volatility the commodity price boom and protectionist policies.
The Thailand Business Forecast Report by Business Monitor International (BMI) includes four major sections:Economic OutlookPolitical OutlookBusiness EnvironmentandKey Sector Outlook.
Economic Outlook:
How will the Thailand economic policy-making and performance impact on corporate profitability over 2014-2018?
BMI provides our fully independent 5-year forecasts for Thailand through end-2018 for more than 50 economic and key industry indicators. We evaluate growth and also forecast the impact of economic management.
Economic Outlook Contents
The Thailand Business Forecast Report features BMI's forecasts with supporting analysis for 2014 through to end-2018 set against government views and BMI's evaluation of global and regional prospects.
Key Areas Covered:
Data:
* Full 10-year forecasts with data - for key macroeconomic variables including GDP (real growth and per capita) population inflation current account balance and the exchange rate.
* BMI's comprehensive Risk Rankings system - rates each country worldwide for economic and political risk and rates the business environment within a global and regional context.
Written Analysis:
* Economic Activity - real GDP growth employment inflation consumption (retail sales and confidence).
* Balance of Payments - trade and investment current and capital account.
* Monetary Policy - interest rate trends (bank lending and deposit rates) and inflation (producer price and consumer price).
* Exchange Rate Policy - currency controls foreign investment flows exchange rates and foreign exchange reserves.
* Fiscal Policy - macroeconomic strategy and policies government finance and tax reforms.
* Foreign Direct Investment - approvals inflows and climate.
* External Debt - debt profile (short and long-term plus public and private sector exposure).
* Global Assumptions - forecasts for each year to end-2018 covering: major commodities growth in key regions inflation and interest and exchange rates in the United States Japan China and the eurozone.
Key Benefits
* Rely upon BMI's 100% independent forecast scenarios for Thailand and underlying assumptions - we take no advertising and are privately-owned.
* Exploit the benefits of BMI's comprehensive and reliable macroeconomic database on Thailand sourced and fully maintained by BMI from an extensive network of private sector government and multilateral contacts.
* Gain key insights into the current and future direction of government economic policy which could significantly affect your company's business prospects from BMI's team of analysts and economists.
Political Outlook:
What are the political risks to doing business in Thailand over the next 5-years?
BMI's Thailand country Risk Rankings evaluate the short- and medium-term threats to political stability.
Political Outlook Contents
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