(MENAFNEditorial)
Mixed Outlook For Indonesian Ports In 2015
Our shipping and ports forecast for 2015 shows growth rates picking up pace slightly at the port of Tanjung Priok while they will decelerate a little at the smaller facility at Palembang. This reflects the slightly mixed freight demand picture as the Indonesian economy is set to slow marginally while foreign trade picks up pace compared to 2014. Over the medium- to long-term we continue to believe that the key to sustainable growth is investment in port infrastructure including road and rail links in the hinterland areas. We are encouraged to see continuing evidence of progress on this front.
BMI is trimming back its forecast for Indonesian GDP growth in 2015 by half a percentage point to 5.5% down from 6.0% previously. We are maintaining our estimate for 2014 growth at 5.1%. The main reasons for being more cautious about the outlook in 2015 are the combined effects of tighter monetary policy the adjustment caused by the reduction of petrol price subsidies and a mixed export outlook influenced by the slowdown in the Chinese economy. Bank Indonesia (BI) has maintained a relatively tight monetary policy bias over recent quarters despite a falling rate of headline inflation. However the decision by the new administration of President Joko 'Jokowi' Widodo to slash petrol price subsidies in November is expected to give a short-term boost to inflation and therefore persuade BI to maintain higher interest rates. Other growth-negative factors are also at work such as the slowdown in the Chinese economy. Investment has eased back. Despite this BMI remains optimistic about the medium-term outlook for the country and in the period running up to 2019 we expect GDP growth to average a healthy 6.3%.
Full Report Details at
- http://www.fastmr.com/prod/924177_indonesia_shipping_report_q1_2015.aspx?afid=101
Headline Industry Data
* 2015 Tanjung Priok total tonnage forecast to grow 5.9% to 40.212mn tonnes with average annual growth of 6.3% expected over our five-year forecast period (2015-2019).
* 2015 Palembang total tonnage...
The Indonesia Shipping Report has been researched at source and features latest-available data and Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasting critically analysing international transport of dry bulk and containers. The report evaluates the global commodities and trade backdrop alongside in-depth country-specific analysis of trade prospects. The report also contains company profiles covering leading multinational and national shipping companies and analysis of latest industry news trends and regulatory developments in Indonesia.
BMI's Indonesia Shipping Report provides industry professionals and strategists sector analysts business investors trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the shipping industry in Indonesia.
Key Benefits
* Benchmark BMI's independent shipping industry forecasts for Indonesia to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Indonesian shipping market.
* Target business opportunities and risks in Indonesia through our reviews of latest industry trends regulatory changes and major deals projects and investments.
* Exploit the latest competitive intelligence and company SWOTS on your competitors and peers including multinational and national companies.
Coverage
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts views and trend analysis covering shipping major investments and projects and significant multinational and national company developments.
SWOT Analysis
SWOT (Strengths Weaknesses Opportunities and Threats) analysis of the state's shipping sector which carefully evaluates the short- and medium-term issues facing the industry.
Market Overview
Analysis of the capacity terminals and planned development of the major ports in each country including data on throughput and total tonnage.
Industry Forecast Scenario
Historic data series (2008-2012) and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and macroeconomic indicators (see list below) supported by explicit assumptions plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast including:
Major port freight throughput (tonnes/teu); overall freight throughput (teu); total imports (US$bn) and exports (US$bn).
Company Profiles
Company profiles include business activities leading products and services company strategy trends and developments and economic performance analysis.
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