(MENAFNEditorial)
Low natural gas prices increasingly stringent EPA emissions regulations and strong growth in solar and wind generation will all lead to the displacement of coal in the US electricity generation mix. As the switch to gas and renewables gathers pace investment in gas pipeline infrastructure will be needed to overcome gas supply bottlenecks and the grid will need to be upgraded to ensure it can handle the influx of intermittent renewable energy.
The dynamics governing the US power market continue to be driven by the country's shale gas boom with low gas prices set to determine the composition of the energy mix. While gas remains cheap the longer-term outlook for utilities that operate coal-fired and nuclear capacity is muted.
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Although we have highlighted that the shape of the US energy mix has been contingent on coal-gas pricing dynamics over 2013 and 2014 we expect gas-fired generation to rebound on an annual basis in 2015 (growing 5.9%) thanks to new gas capacity additions and the fact that coal-fired power plants will be forced to close to comply more stringent emissions limits and Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) regulations. This view is underscored by EIA data that indicate a total of 4350MW of new utility-scale generating capacity came online in H114. Of these capacity additions more than half was combined cycle gas power plants while the rest was mainly solar and wind capacity additions.
Key Trends And Developments
* The EPA's federal June 2014 targets for the reduction of carbon dioxide emissions from fossil-fuelled power plants is highly controversial but has been described as the most ambitious plan to combat climate change in US history. The goal is to cut countrywide carbon dioxide emissions by 30% by 2030 (compared to 2005 levels) - although the way that these targets will be achieved will be decided at state level by regional officials. Options open to specific states include joining existing regional cap-and-trade schemes or...
The United States Power Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts covering electricity generation (coal gas oil nuclear hydro and non-hydro renewables) electricity consumption trade transmission and distribution losses and electricity generating capacity.
The United States Power Report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing national and multinational operators by sales market share investments projects partners and expansion strategies.
Key Benefits
* Use BMI's independent industry forecasts for United States to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic planning in the power market.
* Target business opportunities and risks United States's power sector through our reviews of latest power industry trends regulatory changes and major deals projects and investments in United States
* Assess the activities strategy and market position of your competitors partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape analysis.
Coverage
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts views and trend analysis covering power markets regulatory changes major investments projects and company developments.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths Weaknesses Opportunities and Threats within the power sector and within the broader political economic and business environment.
Regional Overview
The Regional Overview provides a comparative context from within which one can assess the relative profitability of the power industry in a given country incorporating BMI's country risk macro forecasts into our regional analysis. They also detail any relevant issues or events that might cause market fluctuations as well as evaluate the impact of existing power infrastructure and fresh investments on the regional market.
BMI Industry Forecasts
The Industry Forecasts provide historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for electricity generation (TWh) and electricity generating capacity (MW) for each individual power segment present in the country. These forecasts are in turn supported by explicit assumptions in conjunction with analysis of the key risks to the main forecast. These in turn are broken down into:
Electricity Generation forecasts for Thermal Coal Gas Oil Nuclear Hydro and Non-Hydro Renewables. For this section we provide information on electricity generation (TWh) % growth year-on-year KWh per capita and the % of total electricity generation. The thermal fuels (coal gas and oil) also have figures for their % of total thermal electricity generation.
Electricity Generating Capacity offers forecasts for the potential net capacity and net capacity growth % change year-on-year for the whole power industry. It also includes individual forecasts for capacity (MW) capacity growth % change year-on-year and % of total capacity for Thermal Nuclear Hydro and Non-Hydro Renewables.
The section also includes historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for:
Electricity Consumption encompassing information on net consumption (TWh) net consumption growth % change year-on-year and net consumption per capita (KWh).
Transmission And Distribution Losses comprising predictions on Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses (TWh) and Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses % of Output.
Electricity Trade offering historical figures for imports and exports and forecasts for net imports (TWh).
Market Overview
This section provides an overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.
Risk/Reward Rankings
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