(MENAFNEditorial)
Germany has moved to slow the pace and constrain the cost of the Energiewende but remains dedicated to its green energy transition . In spite of the economic costs and threats to industrial competitiveness the country is committed to strong growth in renewables capacity . This will drive radical changes to the traditional utility model - as evidenced by E.ON decision to spin off its fossil fuel business.
Although reform of the Renewable Energy Sources Act (EEG) may slow the pace of renewables expansion so as to reduce the costs associated with the Energiewende (energy transition) we emphasise that there is little to indicate any major change in green energy policy trajectory. Germany will continue to register rapid growth in renewable-based electricity generation and retain its position as a global renewables powerhouse. This will however have significant implications for the economy and we maintain that structural problems in the utilities sector are unlikely to recede.
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Our core view is that the Energiewende will lead to higher electricity prices over the next decade and ultimately damage the competitiveness of German industry. This will continue until Germany either reverses its commitment to renewable energy or adopts a more accommodative fiscal policy - both of which are unlikely under the current government. Furthermore the government will not be able to protect industry from higher energy costs indefinitely as workers will ultimately demand higher compensation for the cost of living - meaning Germany will continue to pay the macroeconomic costs of Energiewende regardless of who pays the bill. As such we maintain that the Energiewende will erode German competitiveness and the structural challenges facing traditional utilities will remain in place in 2015 and 2016.
Key Developments
* Reform of the EEG became effective on August 1 2014 and is aimed at constraining the annual expansion of renewables capacity and fundamentally changing...
The Germany Power Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts covering electricity generation (coal gas oil nuclear hydro and non-hydro renewables) electricity consumption trade transmission and distribution losses and electricity generating capacity.
The Germany Power Report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing national and multinational operators by sales market share investments projects partners and expansion strategies.
Key Benefits
* Use BMI's independent industry forecasts for Germany to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic planning in the power market.
* Target business opportunities and risks Germany's power sector through our reviews of latest power industry trends regulatory changes and major deals projects and investments in Germany
* Assess the activities strategy and market position of your competitors partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape analysis.
Coverage
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts views and trend analysis covering power markets regulatory changes major investments projects and company developments.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths Weaknesses Opportunities and Threats within the power sector and within the broader political economic and business environment.
Regional Overview
The Regional Overview provides a comparative context from within which one can assess the relative profitability of the power industry in a given country incorporating BMI's country risk macro forecasts into our regional analysis. They also detail any relevant issues or events that might cause market fluctuations as well as evaluate the impact of existing power infrastructure and fresh investments on the regional market.
BMI Industry Forecasts
The Industry Forecasts provide historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for electricity generation (TWh) and electricity generating capacity (MW) for each individual power segment present in the country. These forecasts are in turn supported by explicit assumptions in conjunction with analysis of the key risks to the main forecast. These in turn are broken down into:
Electricity Generation forecasts for Thermal Coal Gas Oil Nuclear Hydro and Non-Hydro Renewables. For this section we provide information on electricity generation (TWh) % growth year-on-year KWh per capita and the % of total electricity generation. The thermal fuels (coal gas and oil) also have figures for their % of total thermal electricity generation.
Electricity Generating Capacity offers forecasts for the potential net capacity and net capacity growth % change year-on-year for the whole power industry. It also includes individual forecasts for capacity (MW) capacity growth % change year-on-year and % of total capacity for Thermal Nuclear Hydro and Non-Hydro Renewables.
The section also includes historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for:
Electricity Consumption encompassing information on net consumption (TWh) net consumption growth % change year-on-year and net consumption per capita (KWh).
Transmission And Distribution Losses comprising predictions on Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses (TWh) and Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses % of Output.
Electricity Trade offering historical figures for imports and exports and forecasts for net imports (TWh).
Market Overview
This section provides an overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.
Risk/Reward Rankings
BMI's Power Risk/reward Rankings provide fully comparable rankings aimed at investors (power companies services companies and equity investors) in the regional power market. The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of various industry economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Rankings products.
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