(MENAFNEditorial)
On the back of deteriorating relations between the EU and Russia over the Ukraine crisis we have downgraded our 2015 forecast due to low confidence and poor economic performance limiting investment. Having said that 2014 was the third consecutive year of double-digit growth in the construction industry as it rebounds from a deep recession. EU transport and energy network funding will be a driver of growth to 2024 while housing and office demand will continue its strong sustainable recovery.
We estimate strong 2014 construction industry growth of 13.4% year-on-year (y-o-y) to EUR1.47bn (USD2.0bn) before moderating to a 5.4% increase and EUR1.56bn (USD2.0bn) in 2015. 2016 and 2017 will average 6% annual growth. To the end of our forecast period in 2024 growth will slow averaging a healthy but unspectacular 4.6% annually.
Full Report Details at
- http://www.fastmr.com/prod/924222_latvia_infrastructure_report_2015.aspx?afid=101
Key Trends And De velopments
* The deterioration in EU-Russia relations is adversely affecting Latvia's economic growth outlook although the full impact will not be seen until Q314 and Q414 data is released. Western sanctions on Russia have led to capital flight and a sharp depreciation of the rouble against the dollar which has markedly worsened the growth outlook for Russia which remains one of Latvia's most important trading partners. Real GDP growth in H114 arrived slightly higher than expected at 2.5% y-o-y and we have revised up our 2014 growth estimate to 2.1% to account for this from a previous forecast of 1.9%. However we have also lowered our 2015 growth forecast to 2.2% from 3.5% previously.
* Latvia is a part of the 600-mile Rail Baltica project a priority project (no.27) of the EU's TEN-T core network funding linking Finland Estonia Latvia Lithuania and Poland to the rest of the EU by a standard gauge high speed line. Construction is under way on stage 1 from the Polish-Lithuanian border to Kanaus in Lithuania and is due to be completed in 2015. Stage 2 will extend the line from Riga in Latvia to...
The Latvia Infrastructure Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and forecasts covering public procurement and spending on all major infrastructure and construction projects including transportation and logistics by land sea and air; power plants and utilities and commercial construction and property development. The report analyses the impact of regulatory changes and the macroeconomic outlook and features competitive intelligence on contractors and suppliers.
BMI's Latvia Infrastructure Report provides industry professionals and strategists sector analysts investors trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Latvian infrastructure and construction industry.
Key Benefits
* Benchmark BMI's independent infrastructure industry forecasts for Latvia to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Latvian infrastructure market.
* Target business opportunities and risks in the Latvian infrastructure sector through our reviews of latest industry trends regulatory changes and major deals projects and investments in Latvia.
* Assess the activities strategy and market position of your competitors partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs KPIs and latest activity).
Coverage
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts views and trend analysis covering infrastructure and construction regulatory changes major investments and projects and significant multinational and national company developments.
These are broken down into Construction (social commercial and residential) Transport (roads railways ports airports etc) and Energy & Utilities (powerplants renewable projects pipelines and so on).
Industry Trends
Analysis of latest projects across the infrastructure sector (covering the transport utilities and commercial construction sub-sectors) - including:
Market Overview:Analysis of the key elements driving developments including evaluations of current capacity and future requirements.
Building Materials Overview
The building materials overview provides industry trend analysis on the global and regional demands for building materials and the impact of this on the emerging and developed markets.
Business Environment Rankings
BMI's Infrastructure Business Environment Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors (construction companies suppliers and partners) in the regional infrastructure market.
The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industry economic and demographic data point.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths Weaknesses Opportunities and Threats within the infrastructure and construction sectors and within the broader political economic and business environment.
BMI Industry & Economic Forecasts
Historic data series (2008-2012) and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and economic indicators supported by explicit assumptions plus analysis of key risks to the main forecast. Indicators include:
Construction: Industry value (US$bn); contribution to GDP (%); employment (`000); real growth (%).
Infrastructure: Value (US$bn); contribution to construction industry (%); real growth (%) of transport infrastructure (broken down by railways airports roads and bridges ports and harbours) and energy and utilities (broken down by power plants and transmission grids oil and gas pipelines and water infrastructure).
Economy: Economic growth (%); nominal GDP (US$bn); unemployment (%); interest rates (%); exchange rate (against US$).
Company Profiles
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