(MENAFNEditorial)
Core Views:
* Zambian ruling party the Patriotic Front (PF) is set for a fractious succession process in the lead-up to an election that will be held within 90 days of President Michael Sata's death on October 28.
* Domestic demand will be the engine of the Zambian economy in 2015 as low copper prices and policy uncertainty weigh on the external sector. The presidential bi-election in January 2015 will be a key determinant of policy until the next full election in 2016 and this presents risks - predominantly to the downside - for our 2015 r eal GDP growth forecast of 7.0% .
* The kwacha will trade in a largely sideways fashion at around ZMW6.400/USD over both short and long term as declining oil prices offset the impact that lower copper prices will have on the external accounts. Cautious monetary policy will also provide support for the currency. The risks are weighted to the downside.
Full Report Details at
- http://www.fastmr.com/prod/924087_zambia_business_forecast_report_q1_2015.aspx?afid=101
Major Forecast Changes:
* No major forecast changes
Key Risks To Outlook:
* The most salient risks to Zambia's economy stem from global economic developments which directly impact the price of copper Zambia's chief export as well as the appetite for frontier market investment. If struggles in Europe China and other major markets are more or less pronounced than we currently anticipate then our forecasts would be rendered either too optimistic or too negative.
* A meaningful shift to the left for policy could see investment flows decline which would negatively impact growth the currency and inflation.
* Inclement weather could hamper agricultural production which would send inflation higher and private consumption growth lower than we currently expect.
Forecast Table:
The Zambia Business Forecast Report helps businesses with market assessment strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in The Zambia and is an essential tool for CEOs Chairmen Finance Directors/CFOs Managing Directors Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market..
An influential new analysis of The Zambia's economic political and financial prospects through end-2017 just published by award-winning forecasters Business Monitor International (BMI).
Key Uses
* Forecast the pace and stability of The Zambia's economic and industry growth through end-2017.
* Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends to facilitate risk mitigation.
* Assess the critical shortcomings of the business environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability.
* Contextualise The Zambia's country risks against regional peers using BMI's country comparative Risk Ratings system.
* Evaluate external threats to doing business in The Zambia including currency volatility the commodity price boom and protectionist policies.
The Zambia Business Forecast Report by Business Monitor International (BMI) includes three major sections:Economic OutlookPolitical OutlookandBusiness Environment.
Economic Outlook:
How will the Zambian economic policy-making and performance impact on corporate profitability over 2013-2017?
BMI provides our fully independent 5-year forecasts for The Zambia through end-2017 for more than 50 economic and key industry indicators. We evaluate growth and also forecast the impact of economic management.
Economic Outlook Contents
The Zambia Business Forecast Report features BMI's forecasts with supporting analysis for 2013 through to end-2017 set against government views and BMI's evaluation of global and regional prospects.
Key Areas Covered:
Data:
* Full 10-year forecasts with data - for key macroeconomic variables including GDP (real growth and per capita) population inflation current account balance and the exchange rate.
* BMI's comprehensive Risk Ratings system - rates each country worldwide for economic and political risk and rates the business environment within a global and regional context.
Written Analysis:
* Economic Activity - real GDP growth employment inflation consumption (retail sales and confidence).
* Balance of Payments - trade and investment current and capital account.
* Monetary Policy - interest rate trends (bank lending and deposit rates) and inflation (producer price and consumer price).
* Exchange Rate Policy - currency controls foreign investment flows exchange rates and foreign exchange reserves.
* Fiscal Policy - macroeconomic strategy and policies government finance and tax reforms.
* Foreign Direct Investment - approvals inflows and climate.
* External Debt - debt profile (short and long-term plus public and private sector exposure).
* Global Assumptions - forecasts for each year to end-2017 covering: major commodities growth in key regions inflation and interest and exchange rates in the United States Japan China and the eurozone.
Key Benefits
* Rely upon BMI's 100% independent forecast scenarios for The Zambia and underlying assumptions - we take no advertising and are privately-owned.
* Exploit the benefits of BMI's comprehensive and reliable macroeconomic database on The Zambia sourced and fully maintained by BMI from an extensive network of private sector government and multilateral contacts.
* Gain key insights into the current and future direction of government economic policy which could significantly affect your company's business prospects from BMI's team of analysts and economists.
Political Outlook:
What are the political risks to doing business in The Zambia over the next 5-years?
BMI's The Zambia country Risk Ratings evaluate the short- and medium-term threats to political stability.
Political Outlook Contents
* SWOT Analysis for the Zambian Market - Political Strengths Weaknesses Opportunities and Threats facing The Zambia.
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